We've been on a collision course with this since we left subsistence agriculture and started living in larger groups. Automation's rate has accelerated since the industrial revolution, but it's been happening for thousands of years, which is why I think more people don't see it as a problem. Society's increased consumerism and rising standards of living has allowed people to move into producing things other than food and eventually into service, but it's foolish to think this can continue indefinitely; automation will put more and more people out of work.
That is nonsense. Things got horrible for average workers at the dawn of the industrial revolution. Then they improved markedly due to progressive reforms, and are now rolling back in the face of regressive policies and rising inequality.
It's not really that complicated. Progressive policies, regulation, and tax policy have better outcomes. There are just powerful and wealthy forces with vested interests working hard to argue otherwise.
I'm not talking about working conditions. I'm referring to employment. We need less people to do stuff. Thousands of years ago everyone was involved in subsistance. Pretty soon we developed technologies (the wheel, the plow) that meant we needed fewer people to do that. So people were able to move on to doing other things (like making pots or clothing). Pretty soon we automated those things as well (potters wheel, the loom, etc.) and people needed to start making other things. Over time not making anything at all, but doing service work became more common. But automation means we don't need service work as much either. We're running out of places to move people who's jobs were automated out of existence. I don't deny that life is much better for all this technology, but we need to acknowledge the other problem.
A thousand years ago there were 400 million people on earth. Today there are 764 million jobs in China alone. So, on a literal basis at least, that's not turning out to be true so far.
Your supposition is that this time it's different than all the other times people have claimed that automation and technology will make everyone idle.
But maybe it's not different this time. Maybe technological advancement proceeds relentlessly and has for awhile, and today only looks special because we're in it. Maybe the mechanisms by which economies achieve full employment don't work in the way you're describing.
GP's statement would have been better written as "we need fewer people to do stuff relative to the output they produce". Our workforces, globally, are far more productive than they've ever been thanks to various force multipliers. Better fertilizers and machinery and pesticides and GMO seeds mean we need far fewer people to produce the same amount of food as before. The same is true for most industries, or we are moving towards it being true for them.
There may be 764 million jobs in China, but it's almost certain that those workers are doing more than just double the work of the 400 million people from 1000 years ago (as measured by output).
My supposition isn't that it's different. Just faster. There is no "this time", it's been an ongoing process. We have been able to produce more with fewer people since the plow was invented. As the pace of technological improvement increases, the amount we can produce does as well. For a long time we just produced more and different stuff, but that's not going to last forever. I do not think this is bad necessarily, just something we now have to acknowledge and plan for. We need to start seriously considering how we structure a society where not everyone can -- or needs to -- work.
The beginning of the industrial revolution was harsh, but it beat starving to death during a bad harvest year in previous eras. Also, you got to own more than one or two outfits over your entire life as Adam Smith noted.
this has more to do with governance than technology, imo. Even in the Bible Joseph recognized the need to store food for bad harvests and famine. We're fortunate that the industrial revolution was also paralleled by a revolution in the idea of government and the rights of man.
