I'm sorry, but quite frankly the low-cost estimate is about as Rosy a prediction as one can hope for, and is decoupled from current and past demographic and economic trends.
1) To get to that number the Trustees assume fertility rates will rise to over 2.2, a rate not seen since 1970 which completely goes against the trend of the last 50 years.
2) They continue to assume 1 million migrants a year to the US, despite active legislation seeking to limit migration to half a million a year.
All of this is dependent upon a Labor Force Participation Rate not encumbered by automation and a general lack of skills by the populace. Which may not be a problem but the BLS has been underestimating the decline in LFPR in their projections for the last 20 years. We're decades a head of where we should be based on Demographics alone, according to all of their predictions.
1) To get to that number the Trustees assume fertility rates will rise to over 2.2, a rate not seen since 1970 which completely goes against the trend of the last 50 years.
2) They continue to assume 1 million migrants a year to the US, despite active legislation seeking to limit migration to half a million a year.
https://www.ssa.gov/oact/TR/2016/2016_Long-Range_Demographic...
All of this is dependent upon a Labor Force Participation Rate not encumbered by automation and a general lack of skills by the populace. Which may not be a problem but the BLS has been underestimating the decline in LFPR in their projections for the last 20 years. We're decades a head of where we should be based on Demographics alone, according to all of their predictions.
https://www.stlouisfed.org/publications/regional-economist/o...