> you are saying that skeptics and lukewarmists would change their minds if GMT went up significantly more than their present views predict?
Yes, absolutely.
One thing which makes this seemingly completely empirical topic difficult though is the ~20x noise-to-signal ratio and the "red noise" inherent in the process. This means end points for the analysis make a huge difference. Both skeptics and alarmists will cherry-pick when they can, and will reflexively dismiss each others trend lines as cherry picked.
My view is the "two sides" act as the prosecution and defense in an adversarial courtroom. Neither should be expected to raise evidence or lines of reasoning which detract from their own agenda. And both will constantly try to get the other side's evidence thrown out, even if they know it would get the general public closer to the truth.
Thank you for your answer. However, I think that a large proportion of skeptics and deniers would still not be persuaded if GMT went up significantly. I say that because it seems the question is all tied in with political philosophy and often religion for most of them. You seem to be more epistemologically neutral.
Yes, absolutely.
One thing which makes this seemingly completely empirical topic difficult though is the ~20x noise-to-signal ratio and the "red noise" inherent in the process. This means end points for the analysis make a huge difference. Both skeptics and alarmists will cherry-pick when they can, and will reflexively dismiss each others trend lines as cherry picked.
My view is the "two sides" act as the prosecution and defense in an adversarial courtroom. Neither should be expected to raise evidence or lines of reasoning which detract from their own agenda. And both will constantly try to get the other side's evidence thrown out, even if they know it would get the general public closer to the truth.