Let's just admit it: we have no clue about what's going to happen weather-wise.
A warmer planet will have a massive impact on seas, winds, and life, at all levels. Each effect may cause more effects or cancel other effects out. I don't think it's we'll ever be able to make an all-encompassing model that can assess that there will be more dramatic weather locally.
At this stage, all we can say is that the planet is globally getting warmer, and that it's likely to continue.
I'll admit you have no clue? It seems like there are some competing groups in climate science, but so far the trend of the warming, regional precipitation, jet stream changes, ocean ph changes, methane in warming tundra, the pattern of polar ice melt all seem to have been pretty well predicted years or decades ago by the most mainstream groups (that financially motivated groups have worked hard to undercut and delegitimize).
Yeah, I think there is a pronounce deficiency on accurate and appropriate communication on this topic on the part of media. The general pattern of "funded a group producing scientific-enough sounding disputing theories + some astroturf groups to loudly complain about media bias for not covering it" has devastatingly effective in my lifetime. A sad artifact of hiring for looks/presentation over intellect in many news outlets.
It's apparently an active area of research, so there are _some_ clues. More research will be done and then, hopefully, we will know a bit more. Just like in the 80s climate change itself was on shaky ground and now it is well researched and we know the facts.
Weather is very short term. Hard to predict more than 5 days in advance. There are a lot of factors that effect it, but within 3 or so days, the weather is pretty good.
Climate models are the long term. What climate scientists seem to do, is create the model, then test it against the last period of time where they have good data. (Given what we know about past climate, what would we predict for the last 5? years. since the last 5 years already happened, they can compare the model to reality). Obviously since we only have only one planet and a short time to test on this verification isn't perfect, but they have a lot of computing power and its the best we can do.
I agree with this. However, we can also say with regard to weather that change is bad. After all what little macro level predictability we have is key to agriculture, infrastructure etc..
Progress isn't liniar though, I mean, if you asked the people, who were responsible for cleaning out hundreds of thousand tonnes of horse shit out of London each year, if they would ever be obsolete a year before the car assembly line. They would probably have laughed at you.
"We don't know yet" is the whole point of science, and of research. Over the past 30-40 years progress in our understanding of this field has been rapid, and there's no reason to think that won't continue.
A warmer planet will have a massive impact on seas, winds, and life, at all levels. Each effect may cause more effects or cancel other effects out. I don't think it's we'll ever be able to make an all-encompassing model that can assess that there will be more dramatic weather locally.
At this stage, all we can say is that the planet is globally getting warmer, and that it's likely to continue.