I have a hard time believing that a platform that doesn't allow for beige boxes and software (ahem) sharing can become dominant. I can see the iPhone making a mint, defining the future mobile platform even -- kind of like the Apple II and the Mac back in the day. But to dominate, you need to have the cheapskates on board.
A lot of people seem to make the argument that Apple can never win this market because they aren't cheap enough. But saying that makes the fundamental assumption that there will never be a cheap version of the iPhone platform. Similarly, it ignores the story of the iPod, which started out as a $500 mac only toy, and is now the number one music player by far. Apple is not the company it was 20 years ago.
