No, no, no.... Universal Basic Income will only make it easier for people to do nothing.
If money is such a saver why doesn't 100% or for that matter 50% of those considered rich have a business or at least try for one? Why doesn't every venture capital fund throw money out like it's candy? The answers is that it's both money and motivation that makes successful people and businesses. Money no matter the amount will demotivate people. If one knows that just by waking up one is guaranteed a way to stay alive then it's much easier to not do anything. It's easier to wait until the perfect idea comes to mind. We (procrastinators) all know that tomorrow is better than today. Whether we like it or not failure is not just about money. It's also about how we are view by others in society and money will not make public perception any easier.
Yes, there's a place for financial aid and such but it needs to be carefully parsed. No, not everybody needs a basic income. Basic income for all is a bad idea.
The people that would do nothing already do not contribute and won't contribute at all in the future anyway when their jobs are gone. The few that can contribute and do nothing probably already found ways of doing nothing anyway. In the Netherlands, I can do nothing and get money; you have to be a bit smart about it but it is definitely not hard to just get money. Do more people do nothing? Nah. More people take risk and start their own small company as you have fallback anyway.
But still, what is the answer; there are no jobs soon (<100 yrs) for most people, what does 'doing nothing' mean then?
Actually, this is something that academic proponents of Basic Income have thought quite a lot about (and analyzed quite exhaustively). While it may seem counterintuitive at first, t's definitely not some kind of perpetual motion machine, or "something for nothing" scheme
Out of curiosity, these proponents who say they've analyzed it through and through and think the theory is sound, their assumptions don't include rational players, do they?
You can go around thinking contentedly to yourself that basic income advocates are total idiots (and that those on the academic side, in particular, are outright frauds, and functionally illiterate in the field that they claim to have gotten their advanced degrees in) if you want to. But I might recommend doing some basic research on the topic, instead.
The way you put it, as though all ideas that ever existed only ever had opponents who were illterate and did not have advanced degrees in anything. But the second part sounds fair and will take that to heart
Sorry, didn't mean to make it sound that way. The only position I really have on BUI is that it seems "worth testing, at the very least". There seem to be some interesting live trials going on in that regard, so I guess we'll see how they play out.
We can all tell that your conclusion was written before you read any studies or started on any premises, so please just stop having this conversation. One man's modus ponens is another's modus tolens, and all that.
This is why the ACA was great for startups as well -- a shame it looks like it may be dismantled.
Of course while a UBI of some sort is necessary to deal with the widespread loss of jobs it is hardly sufficient. Most people want to feel useful (mostly as part of something rather than a starter of something) and addressing this need for dignity and acceptance is crucial. Else we'll have more social unrest.
I don't know about numbers but it certainly made it easier for me to find startup founders and made it easier to recruit people from big companies before we were big enough to get health care on our own (you can't even write a "group" policy in CA for under five people AFAICT).
And one reason UBI is unlikely to ever really happen is that the few people at the top (who continually adapt the system to maintain their positions of dominance/wealth) exactly do not want the system to change. They especially do not want to democratize markets, lest they lose their positions.
UBI would raise the little guy, freeing him or her to explore more possibilities beyond the treadmill of survival. And that could lead to disruptions, and disruptions are bad for dictators/monopolists.
If jobs continue disappearing due to robots and software and are not sufficiently replaced by new jobs, then we will end up with a lot of unemployed, poor people. At that point, we will either introduce some variant of UBI or we will have civil war.
As an FYI: an average single male in Santa Clara county ( largest component of Silicon Valley) can get about USD $150/mo in cash aid and $200/mo for food (4k/yr). State/Federal Social Security for permanent disability varies $650-1000/mo ($8-12k/yr). Self-sufficiency requires at least $2.5k/mo ($30k/yr) per adult.
I have been thinking of doing it under a gold standard by basically increasing it every time there is a trade surplus and decreasing it every time there is a deficit. Restoring manufacturing will help reduce the trade deficit, but may not restore all the jobs due to automation.
I'm all for a UBI. Then I can quit my day job and "do whatever I want" instead. Including saving the world. Case in point just the other day I sat down and calculated, because my state legislature hasn't expanded medicaid, I still need to make "x" thousand dollars per year to qualify for obamacare subsidies. What does this mean? Because we have several children, it's a non trivial amount. The result? I will be keeping my day job, and working 8-5, instead of working part time and living off the dole. Come on, government, fund me! Don't hold back! I don't want to work! Who's with me? Raise the pitch forks and torches! :) (I wish I were kidding, but I really did do that calculating...)
Innovation is generally not accelerated by people that are comfortable/have all of their basic needs met. It's accelerated when you are put into a situation where you need to innovate or fail.
Failure is actually the stimuli and it pushes people to succeed more than anything.
Failure is actually the stimuli and it pushes people to succeed more than anything.
A favorite saying of comparatively wealthy (or potentially wealthy) people, where "failure" means something on the order of "not being able to retire very comfortably by 40" or "not being able to make a high salary and do what I love for a living." Rather than "getting evicted", "never having decent health insurance", "being stuck in an $18 an hour job for the rest of my life because I felt too discouraged / stressed out / too scared of being in debt for the rest of my life to finish my college degree".
You know, heavy, real, life-choice-limiting and existence-threatening failure like that.
Seriously, the basic income proposal is a very complex topic, with many tradeoffs involved. You can't just deflate even a partial aspect of it (its effect on innovation, for example) with a cute little pinprick like that.
In response to your failure comment: I meant being evicted or not having food on the table if you don't succeed. Not being able to retire by 40 is a very strange idea of 'failure'.
Who thinks this way?
Most businesses in the US are started with loans or personal money and failure means you can't pay the rent.
It will inflate our currency. The middle class will get a pay decrease and money will not go as far because the cost of many things will increase. Wages in many different industries will be increased because it will be difficult to find anyone to work for less than what they are receiving from the government. This sounds great, but it just means an increase in overall costs for many goods and services and the minimum to survive will now be more expensive.
It won't work in the long-run. Everyone seems to think we will have exactly what we have now, but with free money. Free money means we will have more and more people staying out of the workforce and we will eventually run out of people to tax.
Welfare destroyed the lives of many people in my extended family. Most people aren't that ambitious and UBI, which is basically just welfare with no strings attached, will only create generations of people dependent on the government.
As for comparisons with welfare, it's the strings that are the problem with welfare. Think about it. If you are receiving $12,000 in welfare and get a job earning $20,000 you are likely to have a new total of around $20,000. That's because welfare gets pulled away with paid work.
With a $12,000 UBI however, getting a job earning $20,000 would leave you with a new total of $32,000. See the difference? With UBI there is more incentive to work because it's not pulled away with work. UBI doesn't punish you for working. Welfare does.
Innovation is generally not accelerated by people that are comfortable/have all of their basic needs met.
Really? We could certainly come up with stories of great innovation being done by uncomfortably poor people, but I bet if we came up with a list of 100 innovators, at least 80 of them would be from middle-class-plus homes and could almost surely have gotten any number of comfortable-enough jobs doing something un-innovative.
(Edit: which isn't at all to say that non-poor people are more innovative. Just that people who aren't in poverty are far more likely to have the chance for their innovativeness to have a broad public impact.)
You're right, but I would retort that not all innovations are created equal.
Example: The French artisans, the middle class of their time, created wonderful toys for the gentry but almost none of their wonderfully intricate work had any impact on the Industrial Revolution in Britain, while a handful of illiterate working class types turned the Roman water wheel on its side and massively improved mechanical power production.
Their work would have been seen as obscene by the artisans but it was fundamentally more important.
There is a wonderful 1973 documentary by Jacob Bronowski on this topic:
Anybody can be 'possessed' by an idea, but it is clear that Silicon Valley has too many smart and well educated people wasting their time on trifles, their choices significantly retard what ought to be natural advantages.
Most important thing anyone can do is to choose their environment carefully e.g. having the right mentor, role models, choosing the right problem.
>Anybody can be 'possessed' by an idea, but it is clear that Silicon Valley has too many smart and well educated people wasting their time on trifles, their choices significantly retard what ought to be natural advantages.
Look, I like criticizing Silicon Valley for its ad-dollar silliness as much as anyone else, but that's fundamentally down to what VCs and angel investors are willing to fund. Everyone would work on Mars colonization, self-driving cars, and artificial intelligence if they could. Nobody pays you for that, though.
However I notice we have a lot of billionaires and millionaires in comparison to the former centuries. Not many Renaissance Men or aristocratic scholar-patrons (think Lord Asriel from HDM) though. The groups aren't special either. The modern cliques of the rich and powerful I see today are pathetic in comparison to the likes of the Royal Society or the Lunar Society.
Imagination and implementation of the new is hard, but is also a cultural issue. Today I think many people are convinced the low hanging fruit is picked and what remains is the difficult stuff that shall require large sums of capital and decade long education to solve for X.
For some people. For others, it ruins their lives. And those of their families. Failure can mean starvation, yes, even in the West; it can mean a collapse into addiction; or it can mean suicide.
Interestingly, I was about to make a related (?) comment, that I think it's important to think hard about the effect it has on some people that they are "provided for fully" by the government.
The people that I've met who have gotten addicted to drugs, and even committed suicide, were actually those on the dole.
Not sure why.
If the government lets people stay at home and "engage in addictive behavior" (which we humans tend to do) sometimes they degenerate to harder and harder stuff, and even suicide. They're not happy. Are we doing this people a service?
What's the alternative to "letting" people stay at home? Jail?
Yes, feelings of uselessness are harmful to people. But the current approach of cutting off people's food, heat and accomodation in an effort to force them to find work somehow is worse. It's possible that "workfare" might be better - but in practice it ends up almost instantly corrupted into a system for giving free or below-minimum-wage labour to businesses while still not providing enough to live on, and usually failing to accomodate the needs of people with disabilities and mental health conditions.
(MH issues are a very strong predictor of unemployment, addiction and suicide, by the way)
And we've also not considered the question of single parents who can often find that employment has marginal or negative returns after childcare and commuting costs.
I don't know what the right answer is. I'm just really afraid that if you toss "some people" 1.5K/month, that they don't have to earn, they may use it to buy drugs and then where are we?
The capitalist system trusts that even after individual capitalists gain a comfortable level of wealth, greed will ensure that they will strive for more wealth and continue to invest their capital in a self-interested way to produce more wealth. Greed for better living standards will motivate people receiving basic income too.
If greed is not motivating, then should we not tax the wealthy until they too are in "jeopardy of failure" otherwise capitalism is very far from efficiently deploying the resources of the world.
Oh, of course. Why didn't any economist ever think of just pointing guns at people's heads until they come up with world-changing innovations for fear of their lives?
You know what's interesting? This gun analogy of yours, Penn Jillette has a great video about it. The video is of a talk he gave at the Cato Institute, explaining why he's a libertarian. I think you'd like it.
If money is such a saver why doesn't 100% or for that matter 50% of those considered rich have a business or at least try for one? Why doesn't every venture capital fund throw money out like it's candy? The answers is that it's both money and motivation that makes successful people and businesses. Money no matter the amount will demotivate people. If one knows that just by waking up one is guaranteed a way to stay alive then it's much easier to not do anything. It's easier to wait until the perfect idea comes to mind. We (procrastinators) all know that tomorrow is better than today. Whether we like it or not failure is not just about money. It's also about how we are view by others in society and money will not make public perception any easier.
Yes, there's a place for financial aid and such but it needs to be carefully parsed. No, not everybody needs a basic income. Basic income for all is a bad idea.