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> the chart would imply over 80% of 1st quartile dropouts fall at least one income quartile

While I agree that stronger definitions are necessary, that implies that all high school dropouts from rich families were personally making 1st quintile incomes at some point before the age of 40. That seems highly unlikely to me. Even children of rich families are usually expected to work and find a way to make their own income (even if that comes through family connections), not have their parents income flow to them unimpeded and reclaimed as their own income. There is no reason to believe that these children of rich families were ever making as much as their parents at any point in time, save the 14% that did accomplish it.

As such, for all intents and purposes, the chart shows what two groups who both effectively started with zero income were able to achieve by the age of 40. The interesting thing is that there isn't much variance. Yes, the poor college graduates fared slightly better – but only slightly. That is in stark contrast to the popular narrative that high school dropouts are doomed to failure, forever stuck working for minimum wage, if they are lucky and that getting a degree will magically save you from being poor.




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