The linked PDF's conclusions and figures gives a bit more context; the numbers are not 85%. From the PDF, rich means the top 20th percentile of income, whereas poor is the bottom 20th percentile.
For the dropouts, you only have a 46% chance of mobility if you're poor. For the college graduates, only 63% of the rich will be downward bound.
Another interesting bit: a poor dropout is more likely to remain poor as a rich dropout has to remain in the top three quintiles of income. They also have only a one percent chance of bucking the trends and becoming rich.
A rich college graduate has almost 2x the chance of remaining rich as a poor graduate has of getting rich.
Also, the country heatmap of percentages of people who achieve mobility is very telling as well.
In all, college appears to be a good equalizer for mobility; but given that most people want to be upwardly mobile, you probably don't want to be poor to begin with. Also, don't be born out of wedlock or black. If you really want the best chance of living the "American Dream", your best chance is to be born to white, rich, continuously married parents, and go to college.
> A rich college graduate has almost 2x the chance of remaining rich as a poor graduate has of getting rich.
This is all super fuzzy and almost impossible to interpret. It sounds to me like people are becoming rich at some rate, and staying rich at a higher rate. Seems like it would lead to everyone being rich, in the end (though these are quintile numbers, so it's a relative ranking, so I assume some other outcomes are available that make things balance).
For the dropouts, you only have a 46% chance of mobility if you're poor. For the college graduates, only 63% of the rich will be downward bound.
Another interesting bit: a poor dropout is more likely to remain poor as a rich dropout has to remain in the top three quintiles of income. They also have only a one percent chance of bucking the trends and becoming rich.
A rich college graduate has almost 2x the chance of remaining rich as a poor graduate has of getting rich.
Also, the country heatmap of percentages of people who achieve mobility is very telling as well.
In all, college appears to be a good equalizer for mobility; but given that most people want to be upwardly mobile, you probably don't want to be poor to begin with. Also, don't be born out of wedlock or black. If you really want the best chance of living the "American Dream", your best chance is to be born to white, rich, continuously married parents, and go to college.
https://www.bostonfed.org/inequality2014/papers/reeves-sawhi...