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>> It shows how fundamentally difficult it is to make credible business forecasts in technology.

> Becoming a major success is fundamentally hard and predicting the future is fundamentally hard, so it shouldn't be much of a surprise.

And still, many people assign significance to whether a particular startup was selected (or not) for Techcrunch 40, or was funded by YCombinator.

Even more people believe in cherry-picking stocks as a sound investment strategy.



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