Good question: will newer firmware continue to behave the same?
The backblaze dataset itself covers a certain duration of time. One could model an early portion of the data, and test the prediction for the latter portion. That could be one way to approach the question.
One unstated assumption here is: the hard dives in the data set are running the hard drive manufacturer's retail firmware, not another storage vendor's (Dell, HP, EMC, etc) modified firmware. I believe this is the case, and it may also contribute to the consistency.
The backblaze dataset itself covers a certain duration of time. One could model an early portion of the data, and test the prediction for the latter portion. That could be one way to approach the question.
One unstated assumption here is: the hard dives in the data set are running the hard drive manufacturer's retail firmware, not another storage vendor's (Dell, HP, EMC, etc) modified firmware. I believe this is the case, and it may also contribute to the consistency.