If you are permanently lowering your exposure, you are not timing the market. If you are deciding that now the market is too hot and you don't like the risk, but plan on being invested later, you are timing the market.
I don't understand why I have to be permanently lowering my risk exposure. If Trump wins the election, the market will tank. Everyone knows this so lets say a 20% risk of him winning thus causing a 40% drop is currently priced in - the market right now is ~8% lower because of the risk of a Trump presidency. I am not willing to expose myself to that risk so just yesterday I moved my 401k out of the market. If Trump loses, the market will probably pop up but I am willing to forgo that gain to not expose myself to the downside.
The important point I haven't seen mentioned is that the money you put in the market should not be needed for 10 years. Not money you plan to buy a house in about 5 years, or maybe use to get married about 10 years from now. From 1929 to 1933 the DJIA went down 88% before starting to recover. Ten years is really too short a time horizon, you should have a 20 year perspective or longer. If you had invested the day before the 1929 crash and kept your money in the whole time you would not have broken even, adjusting for inflation, until 1957 - 28 years later.
If Trump wins, I triple the money I put into election shares but lose in my 401k. If Trump loses, the increase in my 401k will cover my loss in the election market.
