I would consider myself a China skeptic but it definitely doesn't help anyone to blanket say the US/West is better or China is inferior. China does certain things extremely well at scale and I have little doubt that some of the most important companies of the next decades will be fully Chinese.
There are other nuances that may give China different disadvantages - some which may turn out to be ultimately meaningless.
What are the longer term consequences of Chinese wanting to leave China vs people of all countries trying to get to the US/West?
What are the consequences of China's demographic problems, structural debt, potential ethnic strife, other geo-political problem? Will this inhibit long term capital creation in China?
Japan's growth miracle put it at the front of global innovation for a while, but it came to an end. For a while Americans were really concerned about Japan taking over the world. It is possible that the incredible things China does will, at the end of the day, help them tolerate some of the negatives yet fail to thrive. What 2040+ looks like I think no one can predict, because much of the outcome will be divided between central government choices and random external global events.
Japan is especially apt comparison. All Asian countries have huge cultural problems. The Japanese were very good at mass producing supply lines. A few people do the important job and a million drones watch blinking lights on a machine. When their economy had to shift services (which was accelerated by software) they failed miserably.
I won't go into too much detail but there are fundamental differences in how people in the west and people in Asia communicate information. In the west, it is the speaker's responsibility to make himself understood. In China, it is the other way around. It might seem like a very minute detail or inconsequential but things like these are what shape societies.
> I won't go into too much detail but there are fundamental differences in how people in the west and people in Asia communicate information. In the west, it is the speaker's responsibility to make himself understood. In China, it is the other way around.
Do you know where I can find some details on these differences in communication style?
There are other nuances that may give China different disadvantages - some which may turn out to be ultimately meaningless.
What are the longer term consequences of Chinese wanting to leave China vs people of all countries trying to get to the US/West?
What are the consequences of China's demographic problems, structural debt, potential ethnic strife, other geo-political problem? Will this inhibit long term capital creation in China?
Japan's growth miracle put it at the front of global innovation for a while, but it came to an end. For a while Americans were really concerned about Japan taking over the world. It is possible that the incredible things China does will, at the end of the day, help them tolerate some of the negatives yet fail to thrive. What 2040+ looks like I think no one can predict, because much of the outcome will be divided between central government choices and random external global events.