The problem with native desktop Java applications that although Swing is quite powerful, it requires developers to go through books like "Filthy Rich Clients"[0] to really take advantage of it. Which very few do.
To this day I still meet developers that aren't aware how to change the default L&F to native widgets, for example.
Whereas Windows Forms and WPF already provide a much easier out of the box experience, and have tooling like Blend available.
I am curious what the JavaFX sessions at JavaONE will cover.
Many of us doing enterprise consulting do jump between Java and .NET projects all the time.
Sometimes even doing mixed projects, like the UI in .NET and the backend in Java.