I don't think it's "cars" are getting weird, it's just this one weird Tesla and their business model... The article says:
"Cars are big computers, and have been for a while"
Doesn't mean we need to treat them like software development platforms. Most of the challenges are still at OSI layer 1 and most of the problems to deal with are mechanical: Tire still wear out, disc brakes still function much as they did 10 or 15 years ago (and wear out), wheel bearings, hydraulic systems for power steering, etc.
Given that cars have much longer lifespans than typical consumer electronics, the last thing I want is a car with a built in 10" touchscreen running some ancient version of Android. I'd rather have some sort of standardized modular system where I can put my own tablet-sized computer in an appropriate place and have it get power, audio sync with the car's speakers. Look at the crap infotainment systems built into 2015 and 2016 model Toyotas, Hondas and Nissans and compare it with a good $400 Android 6.x tablet. Do you really want that same un-updated OS and software for ten years?
The idea of the "double DIN" size car stereo mounting location was a good one, but we need something bigger than this, and with standardized cable connectors:
Carmakers, please find a way to separate the 'infotainment' part of the car's computer from the embedded computer that's actually required for the car to run (engine timing/valves, fuel injectors, mixture, emissions monitoring, intake oxygen sensor, etc).
> I'd rather have some sort of standardized modular system where I can put my own tablet-sized computer in an appropriate place and have it get power, audio sync with the car's speakers.
Oh my gosh yes!
The car should be the peripheral, not the main compute device.
Is it a big deal to plug in a 10-year old USB mouse into your computer? No, because that is a well-defined interface. Ditto for some other peripherals. This is what I'd like my car to be.
I don't think we'll see that anytime soon though. Unless everyone gets on-board with a Bluetooth standard that exposes sufficient functions to the phone/tablet to be useful.
Probably everyone here would like something like this. But the decisions aren't going to be made by the sort of people who read this, they're going to be made by auto marketing executives. Then they're going to operate in an environment regulated according to lobbying by automakers. We're going to get auto electronics with software that becomes obsolete about as fast as a typical Android smart phone. I realistically think that when the major legacy automakers ship something vaguely similar to a Tesla dashboard, the best a buyer can hope for is that it remains vaguely updated for a year or two, and then only critical vehicle safety changes might be made forever thereafter.
But you can also look at this and the point of view of carmakers. What an amazing boon to sales. This is a way to finally solve the ultimate problem of selling cars today. A car you make today has to compete with the extremely good car you made five years ago that still works great, still looks great, and is much much cheaper.
This makes tons of sense, especially in these early days of self-driving vehicles. There are of course enthusiasts who will want nothing to do with self-driving until the very end when their manual gearboxes are ripped from their cold, dead hands, who would honestly prefer precisely zero touch screens in their current and future vehicles (I consider myself part of this group). We're a small minority though, and as evidenced by how many cars are still available in the US with even the option to row your own, I don't think it's going to stop any manufacturer from eliminating the possibility of manual control entirely within the next few decades.
What I'm imagining is something similar to Android Auto / Chromecast / Samsung's smart TV "evolution kit", using a connector in like HDbaseT (everything-over-ethernet) or USB C 3.1 (both of these connector solutions even offer up to 100W power transfer and arbitary data streams).
Basically an RPi3 / RPi Zero with a single connector and a number of well defined interfaces for audio, video, talking to car systems, networking, etc...
The possibility to swap I/O devices would be nice too, so you can integrate stuff like Soli (Google ATAP) when modules for that shows up.
And I want that same thing for smart TV:s too. Ideally both of those could use the exact same standard too!
Cars aren't iPhones though. Let's assume that the manufacturer supports the OS for 2 years and let's take the Nissan Versa 2016, which has the lowest cost to own of any car.
Sticker Price I found was $12,825 ,so let's go with that.
Cost to Own for 5 years I found is $28,855. I assume this includes depreciation and that the car fully depreciates in 5 years. If the car lasts for 2 years, the monthly cost comes down to $796/month. If the car lasts for 5, the monthly cost is $476/month, which is a little more than half.
Now this is the most budget new car I could find. Straight up doubles in cost. Or you get the situation where people just decide to drive with the legacy version anyways, which sounds a lot like a literal ton of Windows XP at 50mph. And all because you couldn't come up with a universal plug for car entertainment systems.
> And all because you couldn't come up with a universal plug for car entertainment systems.
It will have absolutely zero impact on their bottom line sales to stop updating their carOS, since they have been doing it for years already and have never done it in the past. Every car with bluetooth / cellular / wifi support has to, by design, contain a computer to provide that service. Every car with a dash more sophisticated than dials has a computer in it.
Nobody has ever considered the security or ethical consequences of these wholly proprietary computers in their cars, and in the same way modern John Deere tractors are complete black boxes with no ability for quote unquote "owners" to inspect, audit, modify, or replace the software part cars have been the same way for years, even if the computer hasn't given you an obvious touchpad UI to notice it.
The car won't stop working just because they do updating the software. At least in America they have to provide parts for at least 10 years. And eventually they won't be able to continue to yell copyright to prevent people from updating the software
There are people with John Deere tractors who claim they can no longer use said tractors because the tractor's owner won't pay for an authorized tech to come out and plug into the tractor. Because farmers have to be frugal. So maybe they can yell copyright.
On the other hand, things with engines can hurt people so you cannot allow unconstrained access to that port. Safety, IP and "who owns what" will make things more interesting as things emerge.
This is actually an interesting question when combined with OTA updates. Could (auto maker of your choice) theoretically supply all the parts you want but deny you from using them via software blocks? Or would that be illegal?
If the software is internet-facing (hint: it is) and contains unpatched vulnerabilities, it could easily be made to stop working by a drive-by (hah) script kiddie attack.
>I'd rather have some sort of standardized modular system where I can put my own tablet-sized computer in an appropriate place and have it get power, audio sync with the car's speakers
I did pretty much this in my car, and it was surprisingly easy. ~7 inch tablets are just about the same size as Double DIN radios, so a little but of modification to the mounting bracket, some wiring, and a used Nexus 7 I picked up on ebay got me this: http://paste.click/RILfPr
It's hooked into the car's speakers via a USB dac and a small amp, and pulls sensor data from the OBDII port with a cheap bluetooth scantool, but otherwise is completely independent of the car's systems. Turns on and off instantly with the car's power thanks to Timur's Kernel (super low power standby really, but the battery drains isn't much different than having it completely off).
I also attached a wireless remote via OTG so I don't have to mess with the touchscreen for simple things like volume and media controls while driving.
So it's definitely a viable option. I'm surprised no one has come out with a standardized D-DIN to <popular tablet> bracket yet.
the last thing I want is a car with a built in 10" touchscreen running some ancient version of Android... Do you really want that same un-updated OS and software for ten years?
One of the nice things about Tesla is their regular, free software updates. Even the earliest Tesla Model S models can be updated to the latest software. You get all the features that the 2016 Teslas have, except of course where the required hardware is not present (like Autopilot).
In things like smart TVs, smart fridges with LCDs on them, and infotainment systems in cars, this is sadly the exception and not the norm. Hardware-oriented manufacturers push a product out the door and things frequently get little or no updated after that. I'm willing to bet money that in ten years from now, a lot of 2016/2017 model year Toyotas that ship today with some sort of infotainment touchscreen system in them will be still running the exact same software. In fifteen years from now such cars will look as quaint as the cars from the 1980s with full LED dashes:
> In fifteen years from now such cars will look as quaint as the cars from the 1980s with full LED dashes:
Those are vacuum fluorescent displays and not LEDs, and were used in new vehicles (at least by Ford) until the early 2000s. They are still a great choice for vehicle instrument panels and are commonly used for aftermarket retrofit units (see for example http://www.parrautomotive.com/index.cfm/page/ptype=product/p...)
No, I agree with you. I think a touchscreen has no place in a vehicle, as working one will always be a distraction while driving. I don't need to look at physical buttons to be able to feel when my hand is on the "next station" button, but I have to look at a touchscreen to perform the same task reliably.
I've been really enjoying my Mazda 3's setup though; it's got the touchscreen thing, but it actually turns the touchscreen off while you're driving, and has a little dial near the console that you can move around like a joystick to manipulate the controls. This sounds weird, but is highly intuitive, and once I knew my way around the controls I could easily work the display blind, with my eyes still firmly on the road in front of me. I'm OK with a compromise like this. The system isn't perfect, but the input method seems like it achieves the best of both worlds.
Having had two touch screens in two different cars, and having my first car plow into a tree because I was trying to use one, I can agree. They are highly distracting.
My 2002 Nissan has physical buttons and also little feeler dots to enable completely blind operation, and the information is displayed high on the dash so you don't have to look far.
But by far the best experience I have had with in car entertainment was a simple bluetooth link to my phone and a physical volume knob on the head unit.
Hop in, start driving and the music is automatically playing what I was listening to wherever I was before. Volume up or down as appropriate, eyes never leaving the road.
It is rather messed up that a broken infotainment system can kill the climate control.
If your infotainment system is down but there is nothing physically wrong with the AC compressor or fan system it should not prevent you from using the AC in 43C weather. That's as close as I've seen yet to a touchscreen-system software problem breaking the mechanical driving functionality of a car.
One of the nice things about Tesla is their regular, free software updates.
Regular, free software updates are nice as long as the regular, free software updates are nice.
As soon as whoever controls the software updates decides to do something not nice, however, those updates become a huge liability. It's annoying enough with things like evergreen browsers or Windows 10, all of which apparently break basic functionality all the time. But with cars, where an enforced OTA software downgrade can reduce what you bought to something less than you thought you were paying for, and you can have the original back for a few thousand bucks? That's just a legalised extortion mechanism IMNSHO, and I don't want anything to do with it.
Totally agree. However if you look at the trend Tesla has set from the start(as opposed to other mfgrs) it's been very positive.
In the same vein if you're buying a relatively new car you're going to have an unknown amount of reliability based on new changes to that model year. How the company deals with that down the road is a similar issue. I remember looking into a Hyundai a long time ago only to find out that they were denying warranty repairs on clutches with ~4k miles that hadn't been abused but were failing.
However if you look at the trend Tesla has set from the start(as opposed to other mfgrs) it's been very positive.
Interesting. I'm curious about how Tesla will do given their very different commercial and technological models. However, I've never driven one, and the anecdotal comments about them that I've noticed have given me an overwhelmingly negative impression of their brand. Maybe what I've seen so far was just unfortunate and not a fair representation?
Or in cases as directly described in the post: like when Tesla uses software-limits to prevent the car from using the whole battery... and charges you $9000 for the rights to use the whole battery as it was designed.
Do they need to do the updates to get the telemetry?
I imagine the updates will stop for older models about the time they decide that supporting that version of whatever hardware costs more than they get out of doing it.
I had a 2003 Camry. I recently bought a 2nd hand 2014 Camry. I have not done any research, but I swear that the car is magically doing things for me.
Eg.
When the parking break was on and you forgot and tried to drive, the 2003 had some resistance. On the 2014, it seems that it disengages the brake for you if you are not in Park. Which can be annoying if you have to stop on an incline with traffic.
It also seems to regulate your speed in very wet conditions. On a straight road, in moderate rain, it definitely feels like I need to push the accelerator down more to get up to speed.
I admit the 2014 model is nicer to drive, but I don't know what will happen if the electronics get fried.
I'd like my car computer software to be re-copied from ROM every time the car is started. The ROMs will only be updateable by someone who has physical access to the car so they can push the physical "write enable" switch.
Just disconnect or shield the wifi or cell antenna used for remote access. For bonus points plumb in a repeater/firewall to filter any traffic you want.
This is a cute hacker-mindset solution until it voids your warranty and/or you don't get an update you actually did want to keep your car safe.
The solution to this issue isn't treating the car manufacturer as a hostile party and trying weird tricks to circumvent their future actions. The solution is ensuring that the car manufacturer isn't hostile in the first place.
Ideally I'd like to do that with market forces, but that requires the average consumer to understand a lot more about the technology and its implications than is realistic so they can protect themselves.
A more realistic alternative is probably statutory regulation and penalties for non-compliance that can become an existential threat to the manufacturer's business.
I completely agree. I'm firmly in the "do not want" camp with a lot of this stuff. I find very few of the modern electronic distractions to be useful or desirable anyway, and I find approximately none of them useful or desirable enough to justify risking safety, security or privacy.
I would really like a 100% mechanical automobile, with no computers involved, designed such that when something breaks and you're fifty miles away from anything, you can actually crawl underneath and fix it. Analog radio, crank windows, keyhole locks on every door, real guages. I'll concede the electric starter and the windshield wipers, since I'm not that nostalgic for the days of the Model T.
Completely off-topic, but if I saw a new truck with the old-style floor-mounted stomp pedal for the dimmer switch, it'd almost be a shut-up-and-take-my-money situation. I cannot comprehend why automakers keep piling more stuff into the steering wheel. Some of the little sedans have handles and buttons coming off them every which way.
I've found computer-controlled electronic fuel injection much more reliable than carburetors. And OBDII is very handy for diagnosing mechanical problems, even with the manufacturer idiosyncrasies.
Cars are so much more reliable than they were even 25 years ago. Reliable and longer lasting. My first car broke down if you looked at it wrong. My current car does not have that problem even though it is just as old/has just as many miles on it than my first car did at the time. Breaking down on the side of the road used to be a common part of my life, now it hasn't happened to me in the last 8 years.
The reason for that increased reliability is probably because of pump pressure, not controls.
Direct injection has several hundred bar working pressure and a separate filter can be used because of such pressure. Traditional float controlled carburetor probably doesn't work because there is some foreign object stuck in the duct. You cant use heavy filtering because the pressures are almost atmospheric.
The fact that automobiles are on the road for longer than ever and their life expectancy keeps growing makes me think they're getting better at reliability and maintainability rather than worse.
edit
I also find AAA much better than crawling under my car in the middle of the night 50 miles away from anything...in general. But I know that's a personal preference.
My uncle was showing off his new car to me - it had all the fancy bells and whistles of "modern" cars, including a sensor for everything. The same day, one of the sensors told him a tire was low on air. He filled it up at a gas station and ended with a blowout on the highway (up until then the sensor still said it was "low"). The damage to the car was minimal, but it wiped out the "blind spot" sensor on that side of the car. Needless to say, these sensors are ridiculously expensive to replace.
I hate that cars are bloated with superfluous components that always break before the car itself does. That said, there are some gadgets that I would miss on a fully mechanical car. I'd be happy to find a manufacturer that could balance that correctly.
>I hate that cars are bloated with superfluous components
Low tire pressure sensors are required in all new cars after 2011 for safety as driving on under inflated tires is very dangerous. It's a much needed safety feature. Your car is going to get more "bloated" every year as new safety features are required each year because they work at reducing crashes.
I am not sure who just blindly fills up their tires without checking the psi as they go.
Sure blame the victim. But the point of these sensors is to make it foolproof. Then they fool you. That's the issue - its not safer to have faulty sensors that we come to depend upon.
I'm not OP, but with my car? The battery dies every winter, then nothing works. (diesel with hand crank for the win!)
The break in alarm sometimes starts to blink the lights on its own. You have to do some "open the doors, lock the doors, open them again" sequence to fix it. It took me year to figure out what's wrong and how to do the right moves.
The radio doesn't work anymore, as there is some kind of superuser code that's required every time the battery dies.
The headlights have some computer control. They point to wrong altitude.
Mechanical problems happen too. But they often happen by wear. You get significant warning before it's completely kaput. And you can often guess what's wrong from the symptoms quite easily, because the erratic behavior is more consistent.
This ^. I had to replace a dead battery in my truck a few weeks ago, and it's been all frigged up ever since - apparently all the engine tuning resets if power is disconnected.
I've tried to get the dealership to disable the door auto-locking (get above 5 mph, doors lock) "feature" half a dozen times, and I've given up, since they disable it in the software and it's turned back on before I leave the parking lot.
ABS brakes are awful, and down-right dangerous if you are not expecting their flaky behavior, and rather want them to perform in a predictable and consistent way. It's terrifying driving an ABS vehicle on icy roads.
Who hasn't had a largely irrelevant, but very expensive, sensor burn out and trip a buggy corner case in the engine firmware?
I realize I sound like a Luddite, but my favorite vehicle so far is still my first, which was a bare-bones, rusty 1985 F-150 with a four-speed manual and a straight six. It's still on the road, with over 300,000 miles on it, although it has become something of a truck of Theseus, aside from the frame and tranny. You can tear the whole thing down and put it back together with a pretty basic set of mechanics tools. It wasn't perfect - starters and solenoids tended to go bad, and mileage was a tad worse than the current models - but it's simple, so that when things go sideways, you patch up the one component that's broken, and trundle onward.
That's why I still drive my 2000 Integra. It's not without a computer, but it's mostly mechanical. I can fix nearly everything myself, and I do. It still gets decent mileage, it's incredibly reliable, and parts are relatively cheap and plentiful.
I once fixed the alternator pulley on my 1984 VW Rabbit in the parking lot of a gas station in the middle of nowhere in Wyoming using nothing but JB Weld, zip ties, and a piece of scrap metal I found and shaped into a replacement Woodruff key.
There's definitely something to be said for the maintainability of a vehicle where a small tool box worth of tools is enough to fix 90% of all possible problems.
Yes, but API's for cars are not going to be very popular with the manufacturers, who would like you to pay big $ for their crappy un-upgradeable bs. This is one reason why you'll upgrade your whole car, after all.
I would image they'll go through the same evolution that was brought on by the competition from Android devices: cheap, full-features, and massively popular.
I recently got a Pioneer 4100 NEX aftermarket CarPlay device fitted in my 2010 Camry just for this. Unfortunately, CarPlay itself has many usability issues that have not allowed me to use the system the way I had imagined.
This is a bit of a tangent, but could you expand on that? I'm interested in getting CarPlay in my next car, but I'd like to know what some of the limitations and downsides are.
I'd love to hear more about this-I have a 2009 Camry hybrid that has a janky screen that I've been thinking about replacing with a more modern audio device.
> "Carmakers, please find a way to separate the 'infotainment' part of the car's computer from the embedded computer that's actually required for the car to run"
They have, sorta (but it's still rather limited in functionality):
Android Auto and I believe Apple Car Play both run totally from your phone/tablet, with the car just being a view screen. Thus, you get updates when your phone updates.
I don't even want a modular computer slot - I just want a built-in 'remote' display panel & speakers. Just setup a peripherial that can be wirelessly or usb/lightning cable linked that also transmits the touch info back to my phone and plays sound.
Maybe a switch to flip the display to access direct car controls (but really just give me hard-buttons/dials etc for climate control and keep the consumer electronic part simple and separate).
Extra points if there's a standard for sending car control api calls back and forth to the phone, but 90% of utility could just be handled with a remote touch display.
Do you think those are physical switches in cars with tactile components? All of that UX stuff is still backed by a controller. If they are going to proved a remote display, i would prefer those pieces to be integrated so that if I move my mobile device to a different vehicle, then that vehicle imports my settings. While we are wishing for horses, we might as well make them unicorns :D
Why not both? Eventually whatever connection you're using will be dated and considered inefficient crap. Would you want to have to deal with Bluetooth 1.0 today?
Use a standard modular platform so you can hook up whatever SoC you like. Whenever the old one gets dated, upgrade it and get all the latest fancy radios.
A modular platform is a much fatter interface than a display + touch peripheral. To me larger, more complex interface is more likely to go out of date and focused minimal interfaces last longer. People are still using VGA today, and will be using HDMI/DVI for a long long time. Whatever I carry as a phone is going to be updated much more frequently than my car or even a radio/consumer electronics module in my car.
We're in agreement there, I'd prefer a USB link to a proprietary automaker module interface buried in the dash. The bigger problem is to me is that auto makers don't want to make a simple elegant peripheral interface as much as they want to own more of the value in the vehicle - which leads to more complex modules and are likely to put more effort into a more easily outdated interface.
Sadly, this is unlikely to happen since car makers can up sell cars based on the software they ship with. Aside from bugs, there's little motivation to ever update that or release newer versions compatible with older models. We even see the same forces in action with the aforementioned android tablets. Consider how long the typical manufacturer releases android upgrades for a given model. It's typically a year or less.
The cumudgeonly John Muir ( who wrote "Volkswagen Maintenance for the Compleat Idiot") is on record as saying cars would be safest if "... drivers were strapped to the front like an Aztec sacrifice" (paraphrased). Exploits to take over cars through the infotainment systems only reinforce my prejudice.
Shouldn't be actually. The regenerative braking system on an electric car is just the regular drive train. The energy just flows in reverse. The wheels drive the transmission that drives the motor that charges the battery.
In an electric vehicle, regenerative braking is free. It's just the motor turning kinetic energy into electric energy, rather than the other way around. There aren't really any extra parts or systems involved.
Of all the innovations in modern auto design, I'm not sure that's the one I'd go for.
IIRC, a CAN bus design is essentially a jazz model for connecting different subsystems with no built-in security standards. For some reason, I'm not sure externally connected hardware, OTA-updated software, a vehicle's essential mechanical control systems, and implicitly trusted access from everywhere to everything via a centralised bus is a good combination.
Some of the relevant technology is patent-encumbered as well, which is rarely an ideal basis for standardisation and interoperability IMHO.
I think that's what my old Chrysler had. The one where when it failed, absolutely every electrical accessory went dead at the same time. HVAC, radio, wipers, turn signals, tailights.
The only thing that still worked was the engine management computer (it still ran fine) and the headlights which seemed to be wired directly. I think the brake lights also worked but I'm not sure.
Am I the only poor man here? Am I the only one who expects their car to last fifteen, twenty years, even longer with good maintenance? I see people talking of cars depreciating into worthlessness faster than I go through laptops. A toyota or BMW bought today will probably still be on the road come 2035. That's what makes them good cars. Nothing changes overnight in this field. No matter which fancy autodrive scheme you think is or isn't the second coming, these are massive blocks of moving parts. Throwing them away every five or ten years is ridiculous.
Tesla may be all cool and willing to update software, but it's very easy to be that when your fleet is all shiny. Come back when someone finds a security flaw in the 25 year-old model that is now in the hands a highschool kid as his first car. Come back when the 4g antenna in the dashboard can no longer communicate over the now-standard 67gxrr mobile network. That's why there are warehouses stacked full of parts all over the country. That's the car biz.
Man, my newest car is 25 years old and I do all the maintenance on all of them (25 years, 30 years, and 32 years old) myself, aside from safety inspections and alignments. I recently had one fail safety for two small things and the shop quoted me $1k to fix it--$250 parts, $750 labor. That $250 is going to be more like $50 for me since I know what parts need replacing and I know how to make a bushing for my steering rack rather than replacing the whole rack.
If I didn't have that know-how (or a friend or family member who could help me out), I'd be SOL. And this is hardly a one-off thing, and hardly specific to me. Plenty of people are only able to afford cars if they can fix them themselves.
Moreover, I hope to keep these cars running 10 or 20 years further down the road. The only reason I can hope to do this is because of aftermarket manufacturers and no technical restrictions on what I can replace, upgrade, or re-make on my cars.
A friend of mine has had weird problems on his relatively modern car because of what's probably a cold solder in the fuse box on his car. That fuse box costs $700 to replace PLUS whatever the dealer is going to charge you to reprogram the computer in it. Why does a fuse box need a computer in it? Hell if I know. How do you fix this once the dealer no longer keeps around the cables and software to reprogram that computer? Either replace every single computer in the car with computers from a car with a working fuse box, or reverse-engineer the proprietary protocol the fuse box talks and re-engineer a replacement.
Oh, except that latter choice is legally questionable, thanks to the DMCA.
I expect a lot more cars from this era to end up as fancy bricks.
That's a damn shame; there's no reason to discard a nearly-functional pile of parts just because some auto manufacturer is too stingy to help you fix, or not hinder you from fixing, the thing they built and sold you. I recall a study that showed that keeping an old car functioning was just as efficient pollution-wise than building a whole new car to replace it with.
I guess the upside here is that there's going to be a decent amount of demand for folks like me who have both mechanical and electrical chops in the car repair scene in a few years.
This is the sort of thing economies of scale bring. It's evidenced by CPU and GPU binning, whereby it's cheaper for the manufacturer to make one part and segment the market with simple switches to disable functionality (in some cases, disabling parts of the chip with flaws which render it otherwise unsellable).
Car makers have been doing this for ages with simpler features, such as including air conditioning or intermittent wipers but requiring the user to pay exorbitant amounts for the switch on the dash to activate them.
This is the sort of thing that economies of scale bring when paired with a lack of effective competition. If there's effective competition, then some company can and will cut into all the other companies' sales by selling a fully-unlocked version of their hardware at close to the price of the locked version.
Economies of scale by themselves cause lack of effective competition, because the biggest company automatically wins by taking advantage of the economies of scale and the rest go out of business. That's why an industry with significant economies of scale is called a "natural monopoly".
...and slower CPUs were the same pieces which didn't pass the quality test for heat dispersion, thus sold at lower price, for lower operating frequencies.
If you look at this as a $6000 or so discount on a new Tesla, it actually seems like a pretty good deal.
A 75kWh battery pack that is limited to 60kWh is better than having a real 60kWh pack.
The extra over-capacity means that it won't be charging to it's true 100% capacity, and not discharging to 0%. That puts less wear on the cells, and means faster charging. (The sweet spot for charging is in the middle of the battery's capacity - charging speed is slower if the battery is near 0% or near 100%.)
That's fucking ridiculous. Putting a soft-lock on hardware I already own is ridiculous and then charging me $9000 for something that costs Tesla nothing extra is fucking absurd. I'm really shocked more people aren't fucking pissed about this bullshit.
This is the first thing I've heard coming out of Tesla's court that really put a bad taste in my mouth.
This means a 2016 S60 will still have 208 miles of EPA rated range when it's off-lease or up for resale in 2019, whereas a 2013 S60 most likely has a smaller range than when it was new.
Tesla cars will depreciate more slowly, with resale prices closer to original MSRP. That's all good news for their leasing program, their resale value guarantee program, and their certified pre-owned program.
There are a lot of upsides to reducing battery wear. Battery wear is a big reason my 2012 Nissan Leaf is worth less than 1/3rd of its original MSRP.
Most 2012 cars are not worth more than a third of the original MSRP, especially if you're looking at typical trade-in value.
If I were in the market for a car right now I'd be looking for about a 2008 model year. All the significant depreciation has already been realized and you can find some real values in good condition with a lot of life left if you shop around a bit.
> A 75kWh battery pack that is limited to 60kWh is better than having a real 60kWh pack.
Why? Wouldn't the weight reduction be useful?
> If you look at this as a $6000 or so discount on a new Tesla, it actually seems like a pretty good deal.
Yes.. but the whole battery is still being used, and is still in a position to require service. It could be the case that I have a 60kW tesla, but still need to pay the full 75kW repair price, because of the way they structured this.
Good point about the weight. 15kWh means an extra 75kgs or so of (arguably) dead weight.
Servicing costs aren't really something you need to worry about, though. Tesla battery packs are warrantied for 8 years. After that time, battery costs will have greatly reduced and there may even be cheap aftermarket replacement packs available.
The user interface for automatic driving is still in flux. The user interface for semi-automatic driving needs to be standardized. There was that episode a few weeks ago where someone in a Tesla rear-ended another car because they didn't know that in firmware revision 6.22 and later, a tap on the brakes disables automatic braking. This needs to be standardized before such cars start appearing in airport rental lots.
> You should not rely on emergency auto-brake systems anyway!
>
> These are systems designed to prevent accidents in case the driver misses something, but NOT for daily use!
But you know people _will_. That's what happens with affordances. Design. It changes how people interact with things, and not always in the intended way. It's _very_ important to consider when you're talking about the operation of machines that can kill.
Indeed, the presence of emergency brakes could very well reduce the number of accidents, while at the same time making people rather lazy and eventually _causing_ some. Like taking bigger risks on your bicycle when you're wearing a helmet.
>Indeed, the presence of emergency brakes could very well reduce the number of accidents, while at the same time making people rather lazy and eventually _causing_ some.
Is there a psychological term for this thought process?
The thought process: People killing people is "okay" but people killing (overall) fewer people because they are relying on "emergency auto-brake systems" is "not okay".
For me, it is a no brainer to reduce human casualties as much as possible. But it seems others disagree with that if some automated system is responsible for deaths instead of a human. Is it because blame is harder to place?
I suspect that's part of it. Another possibility is that in some cases, these systems may outperform an average driver but not a good one. Removing control or judgement from a good driver in favour of the automated system is then an unnecessary loss.
Of course, you also have the problem that around 100% of drivers think they are better than average. The above is a reasonable and valid concern for drivers who actually are better than the alternative automated system, but there's also a problem with other drivers who mistakenly believe they are that good and that the automated system will therefore make them and their passengers less safe.
Not quite what I was thinking of, so I'll make up a scenario and numbers.
Take any technology that automates a task. Say it has a 0.00005% failure rate which results in death of a random passerby at the time it occurs. Then take any human being in charge of that same task. Say the risk is 0.05% human error which results in death of a random passerby at the time it occurs.
There are people who will argue that the 0.05% is acceptable and will vehemently disagree with and prevent any attempt to switch to the 0.00005% failure rate because the machine killing someone is unacceptable while a human killing 1,000-fold more people is somehow acceptable. Even if human laziness of an assisted (not completely automated) version of the same task had a 0.005% risk it would still be unacceptable when compared with the 100% human-error rate.
Morally, I can't wrap my head around the reasoning. More deaths seems to be acceptable as long as some person can be "at fault". The moment the death is "blameless" it cannot be allowed.
In other words: 10,000 "someone can be blamed" deaths is better than 10 "who is to blame?" deaths.
What's the difference between emergency auto-brake and adaptive cruise?
I think a charitable interpretation of that driver's actions would be that they expected the car to act like it was adaptive cruising, not that they expected it to abruptly brake for them.
Read the firmware 6.2 release notes.[1] "Automatic Emergency Braking - a new Collision Avoidance Assist feature — is designed to automatically engage the brakes to reduce the impact of an unavoidable frontal collision. Automatic Emergency Braking will stop applying the brakes when you press the accelerator pedal, press the brake pedal, or sharply turn the steering wheel"
In "autopilot" mode, the automatic cruise control prevents you from hitting the car ahead at all. Touch the brake, and you've disabled both Autopilot and Automatic Emergency Braking. Yesterday, that caused another accident.[2]
If you drive a Tesla, failure to carefully read firmware release notes can kill you.
OK, but that's not the same thing as AEB "not working without Autopilot". AEB will still activate in manual driving, it's just that you can, apparently, override it by pressing the brake pedal.
(I'm not sure why Tesla would design it that way. While there's certainly an argument for autopilot's steering and acceleration to always be overridable, I don't see a reason why emergency braking shouldn't always be active if it means the car will avoid a collision - even if the driver is fighting against it!)
Admonitions don't work; if it works most of the time, people will rely on it for daily use. Either one makes that annoying somehow or it has to be reliable.
I felt like the second half of the post took on a totally different theme from the first half. Maybe I'm missing the point of the article.
But as for the second half.. I feel that cars are going to adapt to us, rather than us adapting to cars. It's already happening, as the Volvo steering wheel example describes.
I think there is going to be a huge market for used 2005-2010 vehicles without the big brother tracking and obnoxious touch screens everywhere.
Take a few hundred thousand, buy a collection of low mileage pickup trucks and Honda Accords and store them for 10 years. I bet you'd 10x your investment.
There is a cost diff for Tesla, between these two scenarios. But it is subtle. In the cheaper variant of the two he cited, that battery is going to have (possibly) more charge buffer remaining when it's ostensibly "empty". AFAICT. Whereas that more expensive variant will not. Again, assuming otherwise identical. So in theory that more expensive variant is more likely to have more customers who reach empty, get stuck, need towing, complain, etc. Again this is just AFAICT based on info at hand. In this theory, Tesla is saying, "Fine if you truly want to squeeze out more miles, we'll let you, but to compensate us for risk of more complaints, we'd like a little more money."
again, just a theory. may be more complex than this.
I think that's stupid frankly. It hinders the manufacturers of high performance cars that use different safety systems (6 point harness, helmet, HANS device, etc) because it requires them to add a safety system that is redundant and/or could cause harm to the driver. Arguably a six point harness and neck immobilizer is safer that a three point harness and an airbag.
So typical that rules get in the way of innovation. It wouldn't be so bad if we wrote the rules in the terms of outcomes and let the market decide. Just define an acceptable F=ma profile and let the inventors invent rather than impose a solution.
Driving such a vehicle is not entirely fun. My first was a Kaiser 1967 Jeep CJ-5, the short wheel base version, before they started the safety etc. updates with the CJ-7 (the -6 was a contemporary with of the -5 a longer wheel base).
Note also this was a light vehicle; turning the wheels was quite hard unless you were moving a bit, and the brakes required a tremendous amount of force, it took me a long while to not hit contemporary '70s power brakes too hard.
What else: the windshield wipers were powered by engine vacuum, and slowed down when you accelerated (this one had a V6, so it was pretty powerful, and pretty zippy 0-30 MPH, only 3 gears forward so it lagged after that). Oh, yeah, see https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=11919653 cars thought that era had electro-mechanical turn signals. In the case of this Jeep, the turn signal control was kludged onto the steering wheel, there was a little rubber wheel which contacted the steering wheel shaft to disengage it after you'd turned.
And not entirely reliable, 10-12 years old when I drove it, it had a towing hitch on the front, which was used more than once.
I drove a car with a manual transmission and no power steering in the early 1990s, a Honda Civic of some kind. Primitive, but it was also a bit of a delight. A very physical and mechanical thing. The lack of power automation was rarely a problem. However, it asked more of the driver them I amused to nowadays, and would be extremely unpopular if they even still made such a thing.
You have just described a car like a Suzuki Mehran (manufactured today in Karachi, Pakistan) and similar small cars manufactured in India. They're immensely popular in the developing world because such cars are frequently the first proper enclosed, 4-seat vehicle a newly middle class family can afford.
This happened long ago with the turn signal solenoid. That clicky sound when you flip your trafficator? That used to be a real physical switch opening and closing with electromagnets. Now most people have forgotten what it really sounded like and they're satisfied with a gentle, fake click-click recording.
"Cars are big computers, and have been for a while"
Doesn't mean we need to treat them like software development platforms. Most of the challenges are still at OSI layer 1 and most of the problems to deal with are mechanical: Tire still wear out, disc brakes still function much as they did 10 or 15 years ago (and wear out), wheel bearings, hydraulic systems for power steering, etc.
Given that cars have much longer lifespans than typical consumer electronics, the last thing I want is a car with a built in 10" touchscreen running some ancient version of Android. I'd rather have some sort of standardized modular system where I can put my own tablet-sized computer in an appropriate place and have it get power, audio sync with the car's speakers. Look at the crap infotainment systems built into 2015 and 2016 model Toyotas, Hondas and Nissans and compare it with a good $400 Android 6.x tablet. Do you really want that same un-updated OS and software for ten years?
The idea of the "double DIN" size car stereo mounting location was a good one, but we need something bigger than this, and with standardized cable connectors:
http://www.autodvdgps.com/ebay/ZC620/ebay-3.jpg
Carmakers, please find a way to separate the 'infotainment' part of the car's computer from the embedded computer that's actually required for the car to run (engine timing/valves, fuel injectors, mixture, emissions monitoring, intake oxygen sensor, etc).