That's a darned good point, but I think we might already be there.
First, a (very) slight correction. Piracy was a factor, but the N64 also didn't support CD-ROM because Nintendo was addicted to the control and revenue that the cartridge system gave them. The N64 cartridges had lockout chips preventing unlicensed software, similar to the NES carts. They even strengthened the system with a checksum calculated at boot.
I think Apple might be approaching a similar tipping point with things like Flash and Google Voice. These are obviously features that consumers want, but Apple is too addicted to their control over the platform.
Thank you for the correction! That's an excellent point.
It will be interesting to see what happens, for sure. My sense is this: Apple has hit on something with iPad that is similar to what Nintendo has found with Wii. That is, a whole base of users -- perhaps comparable in size to the current market! -- that actively ignores the existing offerings as much as they possibly can because they dislike them. These things that we love, they hate! So, inasmuch as they can give those users an experience they enjoy (in contrast to what they're used to), I think they'll be very successful.
They're clearly very confident in the user interface and surrounding factors they've built. From my anecdotal experience of the types of people who I think are likely to represent the largest market for the iPad (and unlikely to buy anything else except reluctantly, if they must), Apple's control of the App Store thus far is utterly irrelevant. Perhaps it "should" be relevant to them. And perhaps I "should" know more about how my car works or how the vegetables at my local supermarket were grown/transported. But I don't.
Now, if users find themselves frustrated, feeling left out because their friends are enjoying Flash apps that they can't, that could be a problem.
The question, then, is: how many of these users will be willing to give up their iPads — and all the apps that are exclusive to it — for a computer and all the hassles that come with it?
Flash is not The Next Big Thing (it's been falling from prominence by almost every measure for quite some time) and I'm not convinced that any significant segment of the market is actually demanding it. I've heard more iPhone owners applaud its absence than complain about it.
Google Voice could maybe be The Next Big Thing, but Apple can still (technically) get on that train. Much different than the hardware constraints facing Nintendo when the cd-rom format took off.
First, a (very) slight correction. Piracy was a factor, but the N64 also didn't support CD-ROM because Nintendo was addicted to the control and revenue that the cartridge system gave them. The N64 cartridges had lockout chips preventing unlicensed software, similar to the NES carts. They even strengthened the system with a checksum calculated at boot.
I think Apple might be approaching a similar tipping point with things like Flash and Google Voice. These are obviously features that consumers want, but Apple is too addicted to their control over the platform.