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One of Ray Kurzweil's predictions is that the exponential growth of technology is really going to surprise a lot of people when we start hitting the hockey growth phase. What looks to be 20 years out may be getting solved in 2 or 3 years, or even sooner. Perhaps google is making such progress in AI, they sense the public may turn against them if they have both AI and robots. I'm probably wrong, but just a theory. Kurzweil does work for Google by the way.



The thing about smooth exponentials is that "hocky stick growth" is always 5-10 years away.


Alternatively, you are always hitting the hockey-stick of 5-10 years ago.


Real world exponentials are not necessarily smooth.


But if it is actually an exponential than the upswing is aberrational.


While Kurzweil generates predictions which are bold and falsifiable, there's an unfortunate tendency: The bold ones are not falsifiable, and the falsifiable ones are not bold.


every phase of an exponential curve is hockey stick shaped, thats what defines it as a thing.




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