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> I'd agree with the rest of your post but this statement seems to imply there's some "general level" that can't reached by the incremental approaches that yielded the results.

At this point in time, the belief in "incremental" general AI looks like a kind of pseudo-religion emerging in IT. People go way beyond postulating it as a possibility. They fervently defend it as some kind of obvious fact and flaunt this attitude as progressive.

What really disturbs me is the way these bridge the gaping void between existing AI and biological brains. On one hand I see absolutely insane amounts of hype around artificial neural networks, exploding way beyond the optimism warranted by the actual research. On the other hand I see the insistence that biological brains are "nothing special". I wonder how deep that goes. Are these people ultimate sociopath who truly believe that everyone around them is a mere pattern-matching device?

All this bullshit is actually detrimental to the usage of "AI" algorithms as programming techniques aimed at solving real-life problems. For one, many managers look at the hype and mysticism and conclude that AI is something that is too complex for mere mortals to handle. I've seen this on many occasions.




There are two different issues.

One is whether simple progress on neural nets is enough to close-in on real intelligence and I think those who really understand neural nets generally think not.

The other issue is whether incremental progress in general can achieve AI - there I don't think anyone can be sure, especially the relative vagueness of "incremental" and so I don't one should dismiss incremental progress or uncritically assume it.




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