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I think chimerism could only result in false negatives - which is the opposite problem of what's going on here.



While that's..probably true...sometimes the false negative is a false positive (what a fun sentence!).

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lydia_Fairchild


In 1953 a human chimera was reported in the British Medical Journal. A woman was found to have blood containing two different blood types. Apparently this resulted from her twin brother's cells living in her body.[14] More recently, a study found that such blood group chimerism is not rare.[15]


I've long believed (since early 90's, when I first learned about DNA tests and molecular biology) there are a collection of phenomena that make the common assumptions in DNA forensic testing much less firm than ... well, the users of those products assume.




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