The "fuel in the tank" (resource discoveries) has _not_ been increasing. Coal discoveries peaked early in the 20th century if not before, and if you follow BP's annual energy review, the actual coal reserves have declined markedly since the 1990s (decadal estimates are given).
Globally, oil discoveries peaked in the 1960s. Estimates of recoverable reserves have increased with both rising costs and (relatively modest) technological improvements, but that's a matter of increasing the ability to suck from the tank, not increasing its size or refilling it. Natural gas follows a similar trajectory.
And recall just what it is that "oil prices" (or energy prices generally) means: that's the sacrificed resources necessary to provide a unit of oil, or coal, or gas. And it can be directly compared to the economic benefit of that unit.
For the US, a barrel of oil returns somewhat more than $1,000 in GDP. In most of the EU it's closer to $1500, peaking at $3,000 in Switzerland. For the "emerging growth economies" of India and China, it's closer to $450-500 GDP/bbl.
This means that at $40/bbl, the US sees a 50x economic surplus per barrel of oil, but only a 10x surplus at $100. For China and India, it's 10x at $40/bbl, and 4x at $100/bbl. That means a lot of marginal economic activity is shunted aside as energy costs rise. Demand destruction, as it were.
In light of the fact that much US and EU productivity is really outsourced resource consumption to India and China, this is hugely significant.
Peak petrol absolutely did happen in the United States, in 1972, with the immediate result that once the US no longer had the ability to provide reserve supplies from excess capacity, it was at the mercy of whomever else had their hands on that tap. For over 40 years, the Texas Railroad Commission had controlled US petroleum extraction rates, and hence global petroleum prices. In 1974, OPEC asssumed that role, with drastic effect. It wasn't that "the world ran out of oil", but the US could no longer assure the supply.
Things balanced out somewhat in the 1980s and 1990s (North Sea oil, Alaskan North Slope, offshore Gulf of Mexico, Mexican and Brazilian finds, an "understanding among friends" between the US and Saudi Arabia). But it's not as if another 500 million years of oil were magickally returned to the ground.
Globally, oil discoveries peaked in the 1960s. Estimates of recoverable reserves have increased with both rising costs and (relatively modest) technological improvements, but that's a matter of increasing the ability to suck from the tank, not increasing its size or refilling it. Natural gas follows a similar trajectory.
And recall just what it is that "oil prices" (or energy prices generally) means: that's the sacrificed resources necessary to provide a unit of oil, or coal, or gas. And it can be directly compared to the economic benefit of that unit.
For the US, a barrel of oil returns somewhat more than $1,000 in GDP. In most of the EU it's closer to $1500, peaking at $3,000 in Switzerland. For the "emerging growth economies" of India and China, it's closer to $450-500 GDP/bbl.
This means that at $40/bbl, the US sees a 50x economic surplus per barrel of oil, but only a 10x surplus at $100. For China and India, it's 10x at $40/bbl, and 4x at $100/bbl. That means a lot of marginal economic activity is shunted aside as energy costs rise. Demand destruction, as it were.
In light of the fact that much US and EU productivity is really outsourced resource consumption to India and China, this is hugely significant.
Peak petrol absolutely did happen in the United States, in 1972, with the immediate result that once the US no longer had the ability to provide reserve supplies from excess capacity, it was at the mercy of whomever else had their hands on that tap. For over 40 years, the Texas Railroad Commission had controlled US petroleum extraction rates, and hence global petroleum prices. In 1974, OPEC asssumed that role, with drastic effect. It wasn't that "the world ran out of oil", but the US could no longer assure the supply.
Things balanced out somewhat in the 1980s and 1990s (North Sea oil, Alaskan North Slope, offshore Gulf of Mexico, Mexican and Brazilian finds, an "understanding among friends" between the US and Saudi Arabia). But it's not as if another 500 million years of oil were magickally returned to the ground.