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Businesses are usually valued on reasonable (e.g. 12-18x) multiples of their profit (and by that it's their actual profit not these silly non-GAAP 'profit if you ignore all this stuff we don't want you to look at' profit nonsense). Tech companies often try to pretend this isn't reality, but after you've been trading on the public markets for a while reality starts to set in hard.

So for Twitter to be a legit business valued at $18.5 billion (as it is today) they need to consistently churn out around $1.5 billion a year in pure hard core profit. They are nowhere near that and there's no sign of how they will get there. Hence all the negative pressure on the stock. When you bring it back to fundamentals that's the issue here.



12-18 is a reasonable P/E range by historical standards, but not in the present environment. S&P 500's overall P/E is over 20 right now.


Fine, take 20-30. Twitter is still light years off those numbers.




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