Trading on non-public information in prediction markets is illegal (in the United States) if the information was obtained through fraud, deception, a breach of trust—such as compromising a position of privilege—or from a confidential government source. For example, if you work at Google and know that Gemini 3 will be released on a certain date, trading on that insight is illegal because you are legally misappropriating your employer’s proprietary information. Furthermore, even if you did not personally breach a position of privilege to get the information, executing the trade can still be prosecuted as federal wire fraud if doing so violates the prediction platform's terms of service.
However, if you trade on prediction markets using insider information that was gained WITHOUT fraud, deception, or a breach of trust, then so long as the market's terms of service allow it, you can go ahead and trade on that information. Polymarket is a prime example of this: unlike traditional financial exchanges, its Terms of Service do not explicitly forbid everyday users from trading on inside information. Instead, the platform relies on a catch-all rule prohibiting activity that violates "applicable laws." This means that as long as you acquired the inside information legally—without hacking, stealing, or breaching a duty of confidentiality—Polymarket permits you to capitalize on it, treating your informational advantage as a feature that ultimately makes the market's odds more accurate.
“We have got this scheme for the mask ROM recall fabric – the hard-wired part – where we can store four bits away and do the multiply related to it – everything – with a SINGLE TRANSISTOR. So the density is basically insane. And this is not nuclear physics – it is fully digital. It is just a clever trick that we don’t want to broadcast. But once you hardwire everything, you get this opportunity to stuff very differently than if you have to deal with changing things. The important thing is that we can put a weight and do the multiply associated with it all in one transistor. And you know the multipliers are kind of the big boy piece of the computer.“
One transistor doing 4-bit multiplication? A plausible way to get “4-bit weight plus multiply in one transistor” in a 6 nm FinFET mask-ROM fabric is to make the ROM cell a single device whose drive strength is the stored value. At tapeout you pick one of about 16 discrete strengths (for example by choosing fin count and possibly Vt), so that transistor itself encodes a 4-bit weight. Then you do the multiply in the charge/time domain by encoding the input activation as a discrete pulse width or pulse count and letting the cell source or sink a weight-proportional current onto a precharged bitline for that duration. The resulting bitline voltage change (or time-to-threshold) is proportional to current times time, so it behaves like weight times input and can be accumulated along a column before a simple comparator or time-to-digital readout. It’s “digital” in the sense that both weight and input are quantized, but it relies on device physics; the hard parts are keeping 16 levels separable across PVT, mismatch, and aging, plus managing bitline noise and coupling and ensuring the device stays in a predictable operating region.
VLSI design produces digital outputs, but in the quantum silicon domain, it’s all about the analog…
The ZeroClaw team is focusing their efforts on correctness and security by design. Observability is not yet there but the project is moving very rapidly. Their approach, I believe, is right for the long term.
There's a reason I chose ZC to try first! Out of all of them, it does seem to be the best. I'm just not sure that claws, as an overall thing, are useful yet. at least with any model less capable than Opus 4.6 — and if you're using opus, then whew, that's expensive and wasteful.
The ZC PR experience is hard core. Their PR template asks for a lot of details related to security and correctness - and they check it all before merging. I submitted a convenience script that gets ZC rolling in a container with one line. Proud of that!
Regarding models, I’ve found that going with OpenRouter’s `auto` model works well enough, choosing the powerful models when they seem to be needed, and falling back on cheaper ones for other queries. But, it’s still expensive…
Depending on what you want your claw to do, Gemini Flash can get you pretty far for pennies.
Having dabbled in VLSI in the early-2010s, half the battle is getting a manufacturing slot with TSMC. It’s a dark art with secret handshakes. This demonstrator chip is an enormous accomplishment.
Yeah and a team I’m not familiar with — I didn’t check bios but they don’t lead with ‘our team made this or that gpu for this or that bigco’.
The design ip at 6nm is still tough; I feel like this team must have at least one real genius and some incredibly good support at tsmc. Or they’ve been waiting a year for a slot :)
"Ljubisa Bajic desiged video encoders for Teralogic and Oak Technology before moving over to AMD and rising through the engineering ranks to be the architect and senior manager of the company’s hybrid CPU-GPU chip designs for PCs and servers. Bajic did a one-year stint at Nvidia as s senior architect, bounced back to AMD as a director of integrated circuit design for two years, and then started Tenstorrent."
His wife (COO) worked at Altera, ATI, AMD and Testorrent.
"Drago Ignjatovic, who was a senior design engineer working on AMD APUs and GPUs and took over for Ljubisa Bajic as director of ASIC design when the latter left to start Tenstorrent. Nine months later, Ignjatovic joined Tenstorrent as its vice president of hardware engineering, and he started Taalas with the Bajices as the startup’s chief technology officer."
What I’m noticing, overall: I’ve never cut so much code in my life. I’ve become a coding monster with one of those dark green GitHub profiles ever since 5.3-Codex gave me the confidence to load in a ridiculous number of tasks every day and let it rip. I have about three coding tasks going at once and in another window, Claude Cowork is ripping through PowerPoints and getting back to lawyers.
This tech is not going to replace us. If anything, I am becoming even more of a workaholic. But the output volume is going to pay off for those who are privileged enough to use these tools.
There are thousands like you now. How many does it take to run the economy? What would the rest do.
Think of it like what a tractor did to agricultural work. The fist guy that used a tractor probably thought: this is not replacing me, I’m just much more productive. Well, turns out you only need one guy per farm now.
But now many suburban homeowners also have a little lawn tractor, and lots of people on small acreage have a utility tractor. None of them are farmers, but they get value out of the technology as well. Plus, we're feeding a lot more people for a lot less money than we did before tractors.
Yeah, but we used to employ hundreds of people per farm, or per plantation, to be exact. Thousands maybe to do the sugar cane work, as an example. Replaced by 5 high tech, GPS driven, human on board to supervise, not even to drive, tractors.
So human doing lawn with mechanized tools: efficiency goes though the roof. Still one per home.
Human doing high volume manual labor job where there were much more job than single human could handle: number of humans doing the job now is amount of work divided by amount of work human can handle.
Of course we get ambitious, like Panama Canal building ambitious. But even that can’t absorb the previous admin of people doing that kind of work.
What ive noticed, i dont have the apetite to spend tokens on AI fixing errors AI made. Or paying a 200/month subscription. In the beggining of the mobth im happy tinkering, but i reach the cap of how much money im willing to spend playing
The game theory here is that either OpenAI acquires this thing now, or someone else will. It doesn't matter whether they could replicate it. All of the major players can and probably will replicate OpenClaw in their own way and make their thing incredibly scalable and wonderful. But OpenClaw has a gigantic following and it's relevant in this moment. For a trivial amount of money (relatively speaking), OpenAI gets to own this hype and direct it toward their models and their apps. Had they not succeeded here, Anthropic or Google would have gladly directed the hype in their direction instead, and OpenAI would be licking its wounds for some time trying to create something equivalently shiny.
I tend to agree. I don't know whether it's Altman or someone else who makes these deals but OAI have made some brilliant moves and partnerships. Anthropic's tech is great but the OAI makes great business moves.
Altman is the startup idea king. He should definitely know his moves.
Even worse for antrophic is the renaming from clawd to openclaw. It is almost comical now that Peter had to rename it and now it sounds more like OpenAI
Apparently, it was Meta that was the other main contender to hire him. Mark Zuckerberg was impressed by OpenClaw, but, I guess OpenAI wound up outbidding him. It is surprising that Anthropic and Google had little interest.
Yeah, I think was 1991 I first had POV-Ray running. I was fascinated by it. I would have to leave my PC churning all night long with a new input file to see the render in the morning when I woke up.
I wonder how much the tech bros are going to regret having bent over for Trump in 2028 when a Democrat is sitting in the Whitehouse looking at rolling out some retribution using the new legal tools the Trump team succeeded in securing during his second term. We might see some heavy regulation descending onto the industry as a response.
On the other hand, the long term trend of billionaires and large companies getting their way politically will likely continue.
How is a Democrat going to be sitting in the Whitehouse when Trump/Vance is still there with a large contingency of loyal armed ICE agents looking to target dissenters?
Isn't Democrats retaliating just the status quo for them?
Democrats have been picking on the poor tech billionaires ever since the Cambridge Analytica scandal, when they were thought to be at fault for getting Trump elected.
I gave it a run on my Astro website project. It definitely makes more mistakes than Codex-5.3, but the speed is something to behold. The text flashes by way faster than I can understand what's going on. And most of its edits worked. I then used Codex-5.3-xhigh to clean things up...
Great move by OpenAI. With coding agents, if you have access to a fast and cheap model, you can afford to let it rip, making lots of mistakes, and iterate until it gets things right. With the right scaffolding (AGENTS.md, SKILLS.md, etc.), a fast and light model can do great things. And when it's done, you can still have the heavyweight model come in to clean up any messes.
Plan in Opus 4.6 and let a fast model rip anecdotally seems to work very well for me. Having Opus be extremely specific with files to edit makes it even better.
However, if you trade on prediction markets using insider information that was gained WITHOUT fraud, deception, or a breach of trust, then so long as the market's terms of service allow it, you can go ahead and trade on that information. Polymarket is a prime example of this: unlike traditional financial exchanges, its Terms of Service do not explicitly forbid everyday users from trading on inside information. Instead, the platform relies on a catch-all rule prohibiting activity that violates "applicable laws." This means that as long as you acquired the inside information legally—without hacking, stealing, or breaching a duty of confidentiality—Polymarket permits you to capitalize on it, treating your informational advantage as a feature that ultimately makes the market's odds more accurate.
reply