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> I would think insurance would be among the least of worries?

Canary in the coal mine:

* https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sentinel_species


> And the western US with their fires? Or the southern east coast that also gets hit with hurricanes? How about the increased flooding in the midwest?

* Don't build in the WUI. Enforce/enact building codes that take into account NFPA's Firewise USA.

* Don't build on the coast. Enforce/enact building codes that take into account IBHS FORTIFIED techniques.

* Don't allow building / residency permits in floodplains.


The problem is mostly the existing homes. Things like flood zones have been increased in size. People rebuild on previous home sites, but code doesn't require those hardened techniques. You could build a house in a fire zone if you use the right materials and landscaping.

Insurance, homes, etc. are flows for the purposes of this analysis and so they aren't really that big a problem. Change the codes, so the stupid can't be recreated and it will handle itself as the old stuff is destroyed and not rebuilt/rebuilt in a way that can handle the reality of the situation with minimal insurance claim. Even if the rate of disaster doubles it's still an insurable problem in this setup and within 20-30 years the problem handles itself through natural aging out plus insurable destruction of the old stuff.

The key is to make it very easy to rebuild whatever you want within the constraint of new codes that ensure your building can handle its environment. If we let a california happen and hold everything up in development hell so almost nothing is being rebuilt six months to a year after the destruction is the real economy killer that is relevant here.


> First, insurance companies should be the last thing we consider when setting policy, this is propaganda for them trying to protect their racket, not anything more telling.

Exactly what makes insurance a "racket"?



> But he’s terrible if you want criticisms of left-side ideas, or if you want to hear about right-side policies that are working well.

MMT is left-side, and he's highly critical of it. Not a fan of rent control, a favourite of many left-leaning folks.

What right-side policies—especially perhaps ones that are being pursed by Trump / Project 2025—are working well?


> Other countries probably have a more centralized, standardized schooling system.

Which is basically what the SATs are:

* https://satsuite.collegeboard.org/sat

* https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SAT


> I thought we were past that. I thought that it was now about questioning whether it was human caused, or the size of the impact.

I thought we were past the question of whether the Earth was round or flat. Yet here we are.


“Those who control the present, control the past and those who control the past control the future.” — George Orwell, 1984

I was about to post the exact same quote. Along with the firing of the statistics chief, this kind of stuff is literally what the protagonist of 1984 did as his day job under the fictional regime.

Now testify!

Rage Against the Machine[0] delivers it best & very fitting

so many quotes in this thread (and thanks for the 90/00 playlist for the day)

[0] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q3dvbM6Pias


> Rage Against the Machine[0] delivers it best & very fitting

Not really: this false equivalence between Democrats and GOP (especially their recent incarnation) is absolutely delusional. Contrast Obama, Trump 1.0, Biden, Trump 2.0 (so far). Like really?

> [0] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q3dvbM6Pias

With a few decades worth of hind sight, does anyone actually think that Gore would have handled 9/11 (leading into Afghanistan and Iraq) the same was as Bush (and Cheney/Rumsfeld/Wolfowitz)? Even at the time (I'm a GenXer) it was strange thinking.


> Not really: this false equivalence between Democrats and GOP (especially their recent incarnation) is absolutely delusional.

You may be more interested in reading the lyrics than watching the video, the song is not about "equivalence between Democrats and GOP".

It's about the powerful who control the media and how the media is used to control the narrative. (some much worse than others) It's not only about <media bad>, but also how the American people (already with an insatiable searching for satisfaction in movies, glamour and tabloids) have become slaves to it [all media/types]; glaringly obvious today vs the 2000s as media heads have gained cult status in parts, to the point of earning government appointments only this cohort would be able to appoint and not get laughed out of office.

Those who control the narrative controls the present, who controls the past -- controls the future. To bring it full circle, fitting in that rewritting reports is controlling the narrative; similar to firing a messenger of statistics

I fully agree with you, it was strange thinking; and if we're drawing parallels -- interesting how real election scandals led to GOP presidents. [scotus/hanging chads & Mueller report]

Oh, and the "delivers it best" part is biased as I like Rage; they deliver the line better than reading it imo


> Any "science" whose theories aren't falsifiable and cannot make useful predictions of future behavior isn't a science.

Economics makes all sorts of falsifiable statements, including (recently) on tariffs, and in the past, tax cuts and "expansionary austerity":

* https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kansas_experiment

* https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Expansionary_fiscal_contractio...

There were predictions in the 2010s where some folks said QE wouldn't be a big deal, but others were giving dire warnings:

> We believe the Federal Reserve’s large-scale asset purchase plan (so-called “quantitative easing”) should be reconsidered and discontinued. We do not believe such a plan is necessary or advisable under current circumstances. The planned asset purchases risk currency debasement and inflation, and we do not think they will achieve the Fed’s objective of promoting employment.

* https://www.hoover.org/research/open-letter-ben-bernanke

The real difficulty in economics is predicting what humans will do: Feynman once joked "Imagine how much harder physics would be if electrons had feelings"—or free will . Well, that's just the situation that economists are in.

For your inflation example, we know of causes such as demand-pull, cost-push, and expectations:

* https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inflation#View_post-2000_to_pr...

The US saw demand-pull from the COVID recovery funding (to help kickstart the economy) and inflation was expected:

* https://www.piie.com/blogs/realtime-economic-issues-watch/in...

What wasn't expected was a simultaneous effect of cost-push factors due to energy and food prices spiking due to human actions:

* https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine

There was also a change in human behaviour between services demand and goods demand that had a long tail:

* https://www.frbsf.org/research-and-insights/data-and-indicat...

* https://www.frbsf.org/research-and-insights/publications/wor...

* https://www.frbsf.org/research-and-insights/publications/eco...

The difficulty is not in the predictions, but in accepting accurate ones from accurate models and living life and making policy based on them. Some folks simply do not wish to "accept" them, or wish to ignore them to pursue their own interests.

Climate change models are not inaccurate because people reject their accuracy and smother the findings.


> Economics - the business of creating a cover story for whatever the rich want to do.

… excepting those who call bad ideas "bad ideas" even if they help the rich:

* https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kansas_experiment

* https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tax_Cuts_and_Jobs_Act


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