Yes, unfortunately the data is most solid on the successes because their valuations are public information whereas the figures are more shakey with the smaller companies, and creating an estimate that subtracts the outliers is pretty flimsy.

Our best guess is that 78% of the earnings are in the top three companies gives a general idea of the kind of adjustment you'd have to make.

Thanks - I clarified it so that it makes clear that this is talking about equity and not cash.

The idea is that YC must make a large return on their $120k and so your $1.6m will end up being worth a lot more than that too - eventually.

This is rough because it depends what financing device they use.