I have worked on multiple strategies.
- Strategies using technical indicators do work, but you have to reasonable. If you find these giving higher than expected returns, or too many consecutive wins - take the money. Stop live trading and continue dummy trading - eventually there is a point where you can start live trading again. The thresholds will be determined from backtests.
- Statistical strategies work for swing trading. However, these are very difficult to figure out. Need a lot of data (for backtesting). These work consistently over a longer period and might look loss making over a small period.
- Scalping within 5-10 minutes works pretty consistently, signals based on options data.
- Understand and realise the law of large numbers, and use that to your advantage.
- Give importance to understanding the concept of Time. There is a whole lot of weird and scammy pseudo-science around it. Therefore do not blindly rely on one theory.
I do similar stuff and confirm most of the above. It matches my experiences.
The only other thing I'd say is that if you're in a bull market you may have easy wins. Then after -- when the market turns against you -- these will evaporate.
So long term you have to ask yourself if you are REALLY beating the market. If you'd bought Amazon or Microsoft instead, over 20 years you'd probably be far ahead.
> The only other thing I'd say is that if you're in a bull market you may have easy wins. Then after -- when the market turns against you -- these will evaporate.
If your algotrading profits depend on market being bull or bear, you're doing it wrong. Volatility matters, not the direction.
Please line up with all the other cranky people to tell r/algotrading -- I'm sure they are interested.
Mine work in either market. But I trade on the millisecond lines to avoid market bias. And yes volatility is key. As if confirmation of this approach I see Binance has just recently introduced a 1s chart (effectively 1000ms).
However most retail algo traders using indicators use larger time frames that are more susceptible to market trendiness.
Not to mention more taxes if you are buying and selling a lot. As an individual, I would probably just do discretionary stock picks and buy & hold fundamental analysis. After working at an HFT firm, I've more or less realized that institutional level trading (or things that try to emulate it at the retail level) are pretty difficult for little return. It would be a fun side project, but as a way of getting money, not so sure...
Lots and I think anybody who is passionate about programming, has enough motivation to get it done. Most of my stuff is to reduce complexities in my daily life and/or automate/simplify monotonous work to be done at regular intervals.
A video from 6 years ago that pretty much predicted what is happening, and why it's not as straightforward as it is made out to be
https://youtu.be/JrMiSQAGOS4
You might be experiencing a mid-life crisis (assuming you are not undergoing depression). Fortunately, I found what I was experiencing by just openly talking about my feelings to my friends (and not spouse/girlfriend).
For me something snapped one day after age 35. I was relatively successful, married and I suddenly lost interest in my work or any kind of work. Even retired for 6-9 months, only to come out extremely bored - pledging that I would never ever take a retirement.
It took me 3 more years to understand what was happening - I felt that at 38 too, and ideally it was still too early to experience a mid life crisis.
Some tips based on my experience:
1. Take very good care of your health. Regularly exercise (including at least some resistance training) and mostly healthy food. Measure health parameters.
2. Rule out any medical illness and/or deficiencies. Get a full body checkup done (including a detailed blood/urine tests). Do not cut corners here, but if not recommended, you could skip tests involving radiation.
3. For a month or two - take less stress (don't overperform or even try to overperform) and find periods of emptiness. After some time fill in those times with some activity that you love to do - doesn't matter how illogical it sounds. Let your intuition guide you. Make notes weekly.
4. On the work side, try to get into a management role. My situation was a little different, I was not an employee.
I do not know whether I am out of the woods(at early 40s), or just got used to the new reality. But I do feel quite better and may have made significant progress - only time will tell.
I have been called a 10xer (aka magician/one-man-army/genius/R2D2/etc..) quite a few times in my programming career. Sometimes I have felt that to be true but most times I just feel like a 1x.
Many years ago, one junior programmer asked me "How do you do it?". And I answered - "Trust your intuition". I realized later it was a "dumb" answer - but few years later I have realized the following (this may not be true for all 10xers):
I cannot remember a lot of things. Probably these memory issues are due to an undiagnosed ADD. But to compensate the memory issue, I have from an early age picked up the skill to see patterns, asking the right questions and attempting to understand things fundamentally (as much as needed to connect the dots). It exponentially increases the learning effort - but may be that extra effort gives me the intuition to solve/narrow down certain problems quickly. On top of that, I have tried to solve difficult problems just for fun - nobody had to ask me to do that. At times it is like Alice falling down the rabbit hole. I would become obsessed with solving that problem even if I had pending studies for exams next morning. All that added a plethora of experience/hours. If I find somebody solving a problem quickly when I am stuck (which in itself is a rare, because I tend seek help quite late), I typically ask questions on what they were thinking. May even dig into their mindset (to their discomfort) like a psychologist.
On the other hand, I am miserably just-average when I am not interested in certain work or do not understand its purpose.
If somebody feels like a 10x in their company, I advise them to move out to a team/company where they are back to 1x, and keep doing so until age catches up and slows them down.
Thank you very much, you described my experience perfectly and I went on researching what the "alice going down a rabbit hole" is: hyperfocus.[1]
It is linked to ADHD (which can be both with or without hyperactivity, ADD being the old term for the inattentive ADHD type)[2] and for some additional info, ADHD is the most common coexisting condition to ASD (autism).[3]
You might want to check that out!
Thanks again for this fantastic comment, it is so relatable that I honestly could have written it myself!
> If I find somebody solving a problem quickly when I am stuck (which in itself is a rare, because I tend seek help quite late), I typically ask questions on what they were thinking. May even dig into their mindset (to their discomfort) like a psychologist.
As someone new on a big codebase, with lots of collegues with lots of experience, this part is really important. I try to not ask questions too early, but when I do, I make sure to try to dig a bit deeper. I ask other questions, about how it relates to other things I've learned. All of that help me build my understanding of the codebase, of the business, of the company and the people inside it quickly.
For a long time, I believed this myth - might have heard it on TV as a kid. Then one day while reading about the possibilities of intelligent life on other planets - I wondered how far we (humans) would have got technologically without oil or similar fuels, which "I thought" were a result of dead dinosaurs and a extinction level event. That is when I looked up and found the correct answer.
Similar mismatch stuff exists with Google Scholar on two patent applications(now abandoned) where I contributed. It has my name but somebody else's photo and job title. Cannot apply to correct it just because I do not have any University email.
Not really. It is part of the journey towards evolving efficient systems as a whole. If you go by the 80/20 principle about workplace/work (which is true in most cases) - will you fire away 70-80% of the staff as a manager/entrepreneur? or will you give 80% the privilege of not doing as much work or taking on responsibility as the 20%?
Work at an org where you think you could be considered at least a 4x engineer. Even better a 10x. I could be a 4x/10x/100x engineer someplace, and a 0.25x at another.
Learn to automate stuff at your job. It works at programming jobs too.
Prefer the workplace is a product or SaaS/product company. My experience with it shows that it has a lower cognitive load after the initial 6 months to 1 year of hard work. Yes, you have to put in extra effort early on to reap the benefits later on. This does not mean programming more, but understanding the product in depth and in domain.
On top of that prefer an established product which has sizeable management and team size. Things move slowly here.
Stay away from lead/architect/management roles - it would be unethical to take up any of those.
Prefer a development (programming) role. Over the years, I have realised that "time is elastic" with programming roles.
Keep away from consulting companies/consultant roles. Some of those pay well, but then you are not looking to earn more.
In ideal situation I would recommend leaving toxic places - but embrace and learn to manipulate workplaces that give more importance to "visibility" than "actual work".
And the last piece: All of the above should be temporary for few years - it will hurt your psyche the longer you keep doing it. Explore and change your earnings to something that will work for you long term.
I have worked on multiple strategies. - Strategies using technical indicators do work, but you have to reasonable. If you find these giving higher than expected returns, or too many consecutive wins - take the money. Stop live trading and continue dummy trading - eventually there is a point where you can start live trading again. The thresholds will be determined from backtests.
- Statistical strategies work for swing trading. However, these are very difficult to figure out. Need a lot of data (for backtesting). These work consistently over a longer period and might look loss making over a small period.
- Scalping within 5-10 minutes works pretty consistently, signals based on options data.
- Understand and realise the law of large numbers, and use that to your advantage.
- Give importance to understanding the concept of Time. There is a whole lot of weird and scammy pseudo-science around it. Therefore do not blindly rely on one theory.