Can someone who knows more about Tesla tell me what the chance is that we see Musk pushed out? I think given his recent scattered priorities, foray into American politics, reported drug use, etc., he's probably lost a lot of the doubt that investors were willing to give him the benefit of.
Imagining that I'm a major holder of TSLA, I'm starting to wonder when the clown show is going to be over and I can get back to making money.
If you're a serious holder of Tesla and doubted Elon you would probably just sell rather than try to change it because the premium of the stock is all Elon and his ability to convince people of his abilities, nothing about the rest of the company warrants a tenth of its valuation.
The ones that are bullish and holding Tesla are bullish on Elon. Maybe some institutions that have to hold it as part of their funds would step up, but they went along with the fans last compensation vote when Elon threatened to walk away. I guess they don't want the price going down suddenly either
Yeah, seems like it's even worse in that it's a _death cult_. The people in it know that it's not worth what the market prices it at, so they know any sudden moves in the wrong direction and they're gonna lose all that value. That leaves no choice but to double down and never stop. The collapse of this thing is going to be incredible.
My personal website is written with Astro. I love it! Admittedly I'm still a little trigger-happy with my JS usage, but overall the ability to write templated pages and utilize islands that don't require big dependencies is the most friendly web development experience I've had.
From what I understand static web apps have a 'cold start' where if they haven't been touched in so long they get killed. I need to just add a function app that pings it periodically so it never goes down.
Thank you! Appreciate you sticking around and trying it again :) I am fairly proud of it, even in its simplicity.
Yeah it's a tough spot he's found himself in. How do you convince people who know more about this stuff than anybody that you're barreling towards something that's an improbability? It seems that most of them have made their choice to turn more towards reality, the material reality, and register their skill with an organization that holds that in higher regard. I can't blame them, and neither can he, but he also can't help himself when it comes to reiterating the hype. He might be projecting about that 'deep-seated cultural issue' he's prescribing to meta, and lashing out against those who don't accept it.
To be fair, he's hardly alone. Business is built on dupers and dupees. The duper talks about how important the mission of the business is while taking the value of the labor of the dupee. If he had to work for the money he pays the dupee, he would be a lot less interested in the mission.
Additionally, renewables have their own drawbacks - their volatility makes reliability more challenging and thus brings energy prices higher. Nuclear has the benefit of providing consistent base load, something that's needed more now than ever. That kind of thing might be worth the investment, but until now no one has wanted to put up the kind of money needed for that level of reliability.
In a state the size of New York, the sun is always shining or the wind always blowing somewhere in the state. You then use battery back-up to fill the gaps and gas to fill the gaps of the filled gaps.
The latest nuclear plant in the US was the completion of the Vogtle plant in Georgia, which ran a staggering $22B over budget. Twenty Two Billion Dollars over budget!
$22B, is enough to build the largest solar plant in the US 10 times over (total 5GW). Or about 7 of the largest wind farm (total 10.5GW). Or 33 of the largest battery storage plant. With $2B left over for logistics.
And $14B left over for anything else because the total cost was $36B!
The current state of nuclear doesn't make sense anyway you cut it.
> The latest nuclear plant in the US was the completion of the Vogtle plant in Georgia, which ran a staggering $22B over budget. Twenty Two Billion Dollars over budget!
And Unit 4 was (IIRC) 30% cheaper than Unit 3. Because with Unit 3 they had to learn everything about building a nuclear power plant from scratch (from a practical, steel-toed boots on the ground perspective).
Now that there's (a) an actual supply chain (brought up from scratch), and (b) people with a workflow on how to build AP1000s, future units will decrease costs over time. During the 1990s and into the 2000s Japan was bringing up nuclear plants in 4-5 years like clockwork:
I think that you need to consider the cost of a blackout due to unreliable electricity production. This is the wealthiest area of the world, so any blackout or even threat that it may happen would be very costly, which is why you need redundancy and can't rely on one power source.
Camus's 'The Plague' had me laughing when I read it last year - he basically nailed the feeling completely. Though I think where his diverges from reality is that in the Covid-verse we never really got back to any sense of normal. Vibes got shifted.
> Some lawyers bristle at clients setting strategic direction. They believe there’s a “correct way” to do things, they know it, and they’ll fight you if you disagree. In that case, get different lawyers. Ultimately I was able to find good counsel who were willing to work with me taking an active role.
Brrrrrr. AI an be enormously helpful when it comes to trying to understand - I have no doubt the author got exactly what they needed here. But if you're making blanket rules about ditching expert opinion because you can wield a model then I think you're letting your own engineer's syndrome drive things, and you're letting it be validated by survivorship bias.
I have no empirical evidence of this to present, but if you view every transaction as existing on some scale of scam-iness, where one side is you lose your house and wife and kids and the other is an amazing deal for you, the average position on that scale has shifted toward the backside pretty much the entirety of my life. Anything that comes to me first, I pretty much always write off as a scam. Email from someone I don't know? Scam. Car dearlership advertising 0% APR for 5 years on a brand new car? Scam. Even something like my workplace offering a new optional benefit - probably a scam. Did things always feel like this?
My perception is that people always felt like car dealers were scamming them.
BUT people saw opportunity in the big things: education, housing, reward for good work. This is the part that has unraveled. Even public universities are out of reach for much of the middle class (this was not the case as recently as the '70s). We have systematically under built housing for 2 generations, so our job centers are ridiculously expensive. And our business culture has largely de-linked performance and job stability so that well-performing people routinely get laid off for even when their firms are doing well.
It's worth noting here that all of these are enabled by deliberate policy changes that have been enacted since the 1980s.
I wonder about this, too. What were things like in, say, the 1960s? When you went to buy a new appliance, did you feel like the appliance was designed to intentionally screw you as much as possible via planned obsolescence, anti-consumer-repair measures, purchased "warranties" that had tons of fine print so you could never actually benefit, etc?
Even as a kid growing up in the 80s and 90s, I learned that everything was a scam. How many times did child-me watch a TV commercial (on the childrens' channels) that showed a remote-controlled toy car doing extremely cool stunts and riding on rocks and dirt, only to get it for a birthday present and have it not able to move at all unless it was on a totally flat, level, surface? Or, have you ever seen a commercial for a toy like the "Rock 'em Sock 'em Robots"? I'm sure they're on YouTube. Then once you see the toy in person it's pathetic.
I've truly been taught my whole life that everything is a scam.
> When you went to buy a new appliance, did you feel like the appliance was designed to intentionally screw you as much as possible via planned obsolescence
I feel like it's way worse now. We bought our first home in 1990. It was built in 1974. The Whirlpool dishwasher was original from when the house was built. It was harvest gold, but we discovered there were almond and avocado green panels inside the door and you could switch them out if your decor changed, meaning that they were planning for this dishwasher to last a while. In the 20 years we lived there we only had trouble with it once and it turned out that replacing a solenoid was quite easy to do. When we moved to another house we rented that house out. That dishwasher lasted until 2014. A dishwasher that lasts 40 years is unheard of now. Our last dishwasher barely made it 7 years.
Thank you for sharing that experience. It certainly meshes with my suspicions. I'm actually currently experiencing almost the same phenomenon in my house. My refrigerator was here when I moved in five years ago. It has a service sticker on it from 1997! I don't know exactly when this model left the factory, but if it's "only" 28 years old that would mean that things have gotten worse even since the 90s.
The only issue the fridge has had is that one of the defroster heater coils died (it has two- I guess because it's a side-by-side style, so the freezer part is tall). It wasn't very hard to replace. In fact, the hardest part was actually finding the part, itself.
Learning isn't really a virtue of the culture. Most people go to school to get ahead of others. As such, there's two prongs that determine the worth of an education: is the institution accredited, and how prestigious is the institution/degree? The answer to these questions for FractalU is "no" and "not prestigious at all."
Not that that's a bad thing for FractalU. They seem like they know what they want it to be, and they're happy with it in its current state. I certainly think it's a great idea, though admittedly it does only really cater to a specific niche of people. In a better culture that values education I could see this almost being a universally enjoyed activity.
Imagining that I'm a major holder of TSLA, I'm starting to wonder when the clown show is going to be over and I can get back to making money.
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