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The government bailout part doesn't even kick in until they sink enough to need trillions of annual revenue.

Skepticism is easy.



Timing the market is bad, but I'm reading "risk averse" as selling equities and buying bonds.

The problem is that this recent equities run has been extra terrible for more conservative 60/40 portfolios [0].

[0] https://www.morningstar.com/economy/6040-portfolio-150-year-...


> selling equities and buying bonds

There's an intermediate option: sell high P/E stocks and buy lower P/E stocks with dividend paying history. There are ETFs designed for this purpose too.


That is also what I read in going risk averse.

In particular bulking up in EM, EU, and small cap. And slimming down in us large cap.


Uhhh...you're describing something like QAI? [0] And you're going to short a portfolio of TSLA, NVDA, AMZN, META, GOOGL, MSFT, AAPL, NFLX, AMD...?

That's crazy.

[0] https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/QAI/


I am indeed short TSLA (or rather, am taking an inverse position), and have greatly reduced my exposure to NVDA, AMZN, META, MSFT, and AAPL. I keep some exposure to GOOGL, NFLX, AMD, because I believe they are going to "win" in their industry in the long run. I plan to keep exposure to them for like 10+ years.

I have a blog post about the inverse TSLA position here: https://bagelpour.wordpress.com/2025/11/30/taking-an-inverse...


Author isn't non-financial, but the "moat 2.0" doesn't feel right.

> More than anything, though, I believe in the market power and defensibility of 800 million users, which is why I think ChatGPT still has a meaningful moat.

It's 800M weekly active users according to ChatGPT. I keep hearing that once you segment paid and unpaid, daily ChatGPT users fall off dramatically (<10% for paid and far less for unpaid).


It's not good humor though.

This blog is in the "no man's land" of satire v. serious. Doesn't pick a lane and people get confused, but it's not funny, "bit the onion" confused.


Poe's law applies, it's deadpan humor, finance Borat

IMHO it is very well executed, pushes the right buttons, and ultimately raises the question of financial realism (if the market acts like it's true is it true? how far is it from something that you can use to pay your taxes with? and so on)


I don't get how this is pushing buttons that mainstream business outlets haven't openly ridiculed in non-opinion pieces.

It's a satire blog that's confusing or misleading people (See top HN comments.) and not getting strong reactions.

Poe's law is when someone's being sarcastic and they add a smirk emoji to avoid/seek -/+ votes. Feels different here.


> It's a satire blog that's confusing or misleading people (See top HN comments.)

I think it’s equally possible that we have a blind-leading-the-blind situation here, ie one guy didn’t get the joke, posted a serious chat gpt summary, and some people assumed it was a serious article. Seeing as that was the top comment for a while, I’d bet that this discussion is a great example of how using LLMs to “understand” things can actually have the reverse effect.


I like your phrasing.

It's more diplomatic than what I was getting to after struggling to not allude to modafinil or Asperger's.


There's probably an audience that doesn't read mainstream business outlets, but still has some adjacency to it through VC/startup/entrepreneurship circles.

Is it confusing people though? Have you read the real one?


Poe's law is when sarcasm is confused for something serious. Using /s to mark you're sarcasm as sarcasm is a cop out (which I reflexively downvote on).

I'd offer that Poe's law is when you can't tell sarcasm or not [0] and it applies more to comments/reactions.

I don't think the term really applies here, and I also despise the emoji copouts.

[0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Poe%27s_law


I sent it to my friend that works in corporate accounting and she thought the post was hilarious, so I guess the intended audience is pretty narrow? ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

That aside, I don’t think that this post by a made up bond rating agency called the Flexible Standards Group that uses phrases like “unbothered by reality” “downgrade when the shit hits the fan” is particularly difficult to parse as being humor (or at the very least not an actual bond rating)


Look at all of the critical parsing here on HN of nonsensical premises, e.g., "we skipped model scenarios of default".

It also has an eerie tinge of AI generated satire wrapping a real article.

Can't have nice things anymore...


> Can't have nice things anymore...

That's right. The illiterate show up to shriek about things they don't understand.


All scenarios are modelled. It's not complicated.

The issue is the short, 4y renewal cycle, which allows Meta to attempt superficial arguments to avoid accounting consolidation for the variable interest entity that they...pretty much (a) control and (b) have skin in the game.


Not a good tip.

You now play games with per person occupancy fees/taxes upon arrival, instead of screening available information.


In other words, big brother (Border patrol/DEA) use surveillance to fence generic "yellow flags" to little brother (local cops) who pull over drivers.

Is this just a Texas thing due to border vicinity?

I assume Big Brother hasn't published results data, but I'm curious whether the results are performing and catching bad guys. The article's sample appears to show a false positive.


This is the sober take.

People will try to explain away all kinds of behaviors that violate trust a la "they'll never find out..."


When a lot of dudes get murdered for it (historically, and currently in many places), there is also a pragmatic aspect.

I agree on the immoral part, but I’ve seen so much immoral behavior over the years this seems (relatively) mellow.

If you’re in the medical field, you see some wild stuff.


I know what you're saying, but pragmatic doesn't apply here.

We're talking about secretly dating a teenager while married with children. This is more than serving "societally taboo" urges on a transactional basis.


Hey, at least the teenager didn’t get pregnant, and wasn’t related? (Cringe, I know) And also seems pretty consensual, despite the age difference.

Also, no one got murdered or blackmailed to cover it up apparently? Or even bullied into leaving town?

Any small town has half a dozen or more of these types of stories.


They do.

Coverups aren't exclusive to gays, and coverups are universally condemned because of the dishonesty.


That’s what I’m saying yes? What is your point?

You were being snarky about blackmail/death threats.

It's on you to elaborate your point.


Not being snarky at all. Mind actually saying something clearly?

I’ve literally seen every one of the situations I described play out, without a gay person in sight. (Though only attempted murder, not successful)

And notably, gay relationships of any gender don’t have a habit of getting anyone pregnant.

The described situation in the article is pretty tame by ‘hidden/forbidden relationship’ standards.

But then, I used to be a mandatory reporter.


It ties back to your use of "pragmatic", which I don't think applies. Your usage was off, imo.

It sounds like we agree in general.


Suppressing what is going on tends to make things come out in even worse ways. If not suppressing it gets you murdered….

Not great. But could be worse, and it seems like it was done mindfully with minimal damage. That’s the pragmatic part.

He could have been hooking up with randos at clubs (dramatically higher disease risk), or worse, instead of what seems like a relatively stable (outside) relationship?

I’ve seen a lot worse. Not condoning, but the math seems obvious.

And his daughter may not like it, but she’s also literally only here because of it. So….

In most of the major Asian cultures, you have a very specifically shaped box to fit in. If you refuse to fit in it, you’ll be hammered on until you do. It’s not a great environment if you’re not box shaped. But society doesn’t particularly care - this was especially true 30+ years ago.

Some exceptions of course (Thai, some areas in big cities), but it’s largely still the case.


No way...

Even guys get parental leave, now!

I know too many people that've gotten fancy EMBAs paid for by the company as retention/networking tools along with the countless others (read: majority) that don't use the annual tuition reimbursement available to all employees.


Even if the company is subsidizing, earning a degree while working is a pretty substantial time commitment even as a part-time thing though some people obviously do it.

I got two degrees in this manner..

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