So far, the average US workforce seems to be ok with working conditions that most Europeans would consider reasons to riot. So far I've not observed substantial riots in the news.
Apparently the threshold for low pay and poor treatment among non-knowledge-workers is quite low. I'm assuming the same is going to be true for knowledge workers once they can be replaced an mass.
Trumps Playbook will actually work, so MAGA will get results.
Tariffs will force productivity and salaries higher (and prices), then automation which is the main driver of productivity will kick in which lowers prices of goods again.
Globalisation was basically the west standing still and waiting for the rest to catch up - the last to industrialise will always have the best productivity and industrial base. It was always stupid, but it lifted billions out of poverty so there's that.
The effects will take way longer than the 3 years he has left, so he has oversold the effectiveness of it all.
This is all assuming AGI isn't around the corner, the VLAs, VLM, LLM and other models opens up automation on a whole new scale.
For any competent person with agency and a dream, this could be a true golden age - most things are within reach which before was locked down behind hundreds or thousand of hours of training and work to master.
The average U.S. worker earns significantly more purchasing power per hour than the average European worker. The common narrative about U.S. versus EU working conditions is simply wrong.
there is no "average worker", this is a statistical concept, life in europe is way better them in US for low income people, they have healthcare, they have weekends , they have public tranportation, they have schools and pre-schools , they lack some space since europe is full populated but overall, no low income (and maybe not so low) will change europe for USA anytime.
Agree. There’s no other place in the world where you can be a moderately intelligent person with moderate work ethic (and be lucky enough to get a job in big tech) and be able to retire in your 40s. Certainly not EU.
The ultimate end goal is to eliminate most people. See the Georgia Guidestone inscriptions. One of them reads: "Maintain humanity under 500,000,000 in perpetual balance with nature."
A passphrase is basically like a password in the sense that I can lose it, but it's not like a password in the sense that I can actually memorise it. (Or rather, all of them)
I prefer my passwordstore workflow.
I remember two passwords, the rest is kept save for me and unlocked when I need them.
It's not perfect, but it's by far the least worse solution of them all.
Ok. But most developers aren't building AI tech. Instead, they're coding a SPA or CRUD app or something else that's been done 10000 times before, but just doing it slightly differently. That's exactly why LLMs are so good at this kind of (programming) work.
I would say most people are dealing with tickets and meetings about the tickets more than they are actually spending time with their editor. It may be similar, but that 1 percent difference needs to be nailed down right, as that's where the business lifeline lays.
The difference between hype and reality is productivity—LLMs are productively used by hundreds of millions of people. Block chain is useful primarily in the imagination.
The industry consistently predicts people will do the task quicker with AI. The people who are doing the task predict they'll do it quicker if they can use AI. After doing the task with AI, they predict they did it quicker because they used AI. People who did it without AI predict they could have done it quicker with AI. But they actually measured how long it takes. It turns out, they do it slower if they use AI. This is damning.
It's a dopamine machine. It makes you feel good, but with no reality behind it and no work to achieve it. It's no different in this regard from (some) hard drugs. A rat with a lever wired to the pleasure center in its brain keeps pressing that lever until it dies of starvation.
(Yes, it's very surprising that you can create this effect without putting chemicals or electrodes in your brain. Social media achieved it first, though.)
And I don't see how most people are divided in two groups or appear to be.
Either it's total shit, or it's the holy cup of truth, here to solve all our problems.
It's neither. It's a tool. Like a shovel, it's good at something. And like a shovel it's bad at other things. E.g. I wouldn't use a shovel to hammer in a nail.
LLMs will NEVER become true AGI. But do they need to? No, or course not!
My biggest problem with LLMs isn't the shit code they produce from time to time, as I am paid to resolve messes, it's the environmental impact of MINDLESSLY using one.
But whatever. People like cults and anti-cults are cults too.
Your concern is the environmental impact? Why pick on LLMs vs Amazon or your local drug store? Or a local restaurant, for that matter?
Do the calculations for how much LLM use is required to equal one hamburger worth of CO2 — or the CO2 of commuting to work in a car.
If my daily LLM environmental impact is comparable to my lunch or going to work, it’s really hard to fault, IMO. They aren’t building data centers in the rainforest.
I broadly agree with your point, but would also draw attention to something I've observed:
> LLMs will NEVER become true AGI. But do they need to? No, or course not!
Everyone disagrees about the meaning of each of the three letters of the initialism "AGI", and also disagree about the compound whole and often argue it means something different than the simple meaning of those words separately.
Even on this website, "AGI" means anything from "InstructGPT" (the precursor to ChatGPT) to "Biblical God" — or, even worse than "God" given this is a tech forum, "can solve provably impossible task such as the halting problem".
There are two different groups with different perspectives and relationships to the "AI hype"; I think we're talking in circles in this subthread because we're talking about different people.
> For me, one of the Beneficiaries, the hype seems totally warranted. The capability is there, the possibilities are enormous, pace of advancement is staggering, and achieving them is realistic. If it takes a few years longer than the Investor group thinks - that's fine with us; it's only a problem for them.
> it's the environmental impact of MINDLESSLY using one.
Isn't much of that environmental impact currently from the training of the model rather than the usage?
Something you could arguably one day just stop doing if you're satisfied with the progress on that front (People won't be any time soon admittedly)
I'm no expert on this front. It's a genuine question based on what i've heard and read.
Overinvestment isn't a bug. It is a feature of capitalism. When the dust settles there'll be few trillion-dollar pots and 100s of billion are being spent to get one of them.
Environmental impacts of GenAI/LLM ecosystem are highly overrated.
Zig is faster, but then again, Zig isn't memory save, so personally I don't care. It's an impressive language, I love the syntax, the simplicity. But I don't trust myself to keep all the memory relevant invariants in my head anymore as I used to do many years ago. So Zig isn't for me. Simply not the target audience.
Or they want to kill everyone else?
Because people won't just lay down and wait for death to embrace them...
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