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It seems to me like the "generation" use case of ML is much more promising than the "prediction" or "classification" use case. It's tough to predict things in general because our universe is fundamentally uncertain. How is some computer going to predict that some mugger sees a target at some random spot and decides to mug them? But the progress in text to image and text generation really blows my mind.


I've heard chatter of Michelle Obama running, which I think would certainly make for a close race.


Oh that's a terrible idea, especially with the rest of the world looking on. It's basically a trope about degenerated democracies. Some popular leader is constitutionally ineligible to continue holding office, so they nominate their spouse who gets the name recognition and then they continue to rule, in contravention of the spirit if not the letter of the constitution, through their spouse, who is nothing but a rubber stamp. Hillary Clinton wasn't quite so bad in this regard, as she served a couple terms in Congress in between and had her own political career, of sorts. But Michelle Obama has no individual political career or experience to speak of. One could be forgiven for wondering if she's just a Lurleen Wallace, at that point. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lurleen_Wallace


it will take someone like this. Media has become politics, so we might as well get Matthew Mcconaughey in as dream ticket with Michelle Obama, maybe Jake Paul as dark horse 3rd party candidate


Eh, sounds like most of big tech TBH. When you're dealing with a money faucet situation it can be tough to tell what's a good decision and what's a bad decision since either choice will result in increased profits. That is, until the fed crashes the party.


Wow. I had no idea that these things had such fundamental limitations. I'd feel a lot less safer using one now, to be honest. If you had to estimate, how long would it be before AVs would be able to do all their calculations locally? Is that something that's even under consideration at the time?


It's a well-known thing in AV circles that some companies were actually faking their route by hardcoding them for demos etc. Also one shortcut is to use HD map data, and relying on 100k+ LIDAR sensor data that will never will be cost-effective. I know of only a handful of companies that rely on 'cheap' sensor data (cameras/radar) and use real-time calculations.


> relying on 100k+ LIDAR sensor data that will never will be cost-effective

Eh, the $100k prices are mostly for high-end, low-production-volume research LIDARs.

There are LIDAR manufacturers claiming they can achieve prices of $500 [1] or even $200 [2] if they were fitted to every car made.

[1] https://guidehouseinsights.com/news-and-views/lower-cost-lid... [2] https://www.opsys-tech.com/post/are-we-nearing-a-shakeout-in...


If a full time driver earns 25k-50k that's sort of equivalent to every regular taxi and uber having a $500k / $1M driving package onboard already (at 4%), right?

I don't know the industry but very naively it doesn't seem to me like $100k really breaks the unit economics? Particularly if volume / learning curve can reduce the price?


You are right in the way that the industry seems to be shifting from general-purpose self-driving to transportation/hauling.


Well, THAT has a Dropout-like HULU miniseries written all over it.


Tesla’s AV design philosophy differs from everyone else’s for just this reason. The idea of using centimeter-accurate models of the environment and having an always-on network connection is fundamentally at odds with handling surprises.

I don’t think a current Tesla would have a good time with no GPS either, but philosophically they stand to better handle intermittent unreliability and adverse conditions once they figure things out.


It is probably a chicken-and-egg problem. They need the data from these scenarios, so they can train the local model for later iterations accordingly.


First, it was "you're fired". That became too harsh so then we moved on to "layoffs". But that seeped into the popular lexicon too, so nowadays we say "your role has been impacted". I wonder what the next evolution will be. Maybe "we are enabling you to help the company cut costs" or something.


People will always find ways to screw themselves up. Trying to ban this or ban that is like playing whack a mole. It ends up being a contest of who can shout the loudest to gain the government's attention, which isn't fair and also hurts the economy. The only answer in my opinion is deregulation + strong family values to help raise kids right.


I'll let the other commenters do the debunking of this extremely stupid point you made - just want to point out that this is so clearly some shitty troll account. 5 months old and all the comments are idiotic crap like this.


The only people who this is an unpopular opinion to are the rich fat cat execs who only care about their profits and share prices. Pretty much everyone I know thinks it was a bad idea to outsource manufacturing to less than friendly countries. Thanks, Krugman.


This just isn't true. Maybe they think that because they're not aware of what would happen if manufacturing hadn't been offshored, but the vast majority of people would be extremely unhappy if the cost of all manufactured goods doubled.


I've read a few of Zeihan's books, and it seems like the author of this article is missing the point. Zeihan says, again and again, that basically the ONLY reason for the US pulling away from globalization is the new shale oil boom, which makes the country energy independent. My layman's understanding is that under the Biden administration regulators have hobbled these shale wells in the hope of achieving an energy "transition", whatever that may mean. So we aren't really energy independent after all, at least not until the transition is completed. So I'm not sure how the conclusions of the article really make sense, notwithstanding the many references to how you could get rich quick by betting on these outcomes.


This is one of the only instances where it's ok to ask: AAAAUUUUUGH how do I get these freaky bugs out of my head!?!?!?


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