We also tried the 'let the market do whatever it wants' method and it ended up with babies being fed milk with formaldehyde in it, pharmaceuticals that were mostly opiates or ethanol, and entire industries owned by single families.
Thought experiment: you can ride a bike. You can see other people ride bikes. Some portion of people get on a bike and fall off, then claim that bikes are not useful for transportation. Specify what skill they are lacking without saying 'ability to ride a bike'.
Knowing those things won't help them acquire the skill. What will help them be able to ride a bike is practicing trying to riding a bike until they can do it.
What's the lead time between new generators and a new detection model? What about novel generators that are never made public?
I think the most likely outcome of a criminal organization doing this is that they train a public architecture model from scratch on the material that they want to reproduce, and then use without telling anyone. Would your detector prevent this attack?
There are three observations that are helpful to know about here:
A: High quality, battle tested architectures are sold via an API and samples are therefore easy to retrieve at scale.
B: lower quality, novel architectures are often published on GitHub and can be scaled on budget compute resources.
C: Often these models perform well at classifying content generated by architectures similar to those they were trained on, even if that architecture is not identical.
As for actual lead time associated with our actual strategy, that’s probably not something I can talk about publicly. I can say I’m working on making it happen faster.
I don't want to be rude is this not a question you get asked by potential customers? Is that your answer for them? It sounds a lot like 'I guess we will find out.'
Unless you can provide a definition for intelligence which is internally consistent and does not exclude things are obviously intelligent or include things which are obviously not intelligent, the only thing occam's razor suggests is that the basis for solving novel problems is the ability to pattern match combined with a lot of background knowledge.
Why does 'next-word prediction' explain why huge models work? You saying we needed scale, and saying we use next-word prediction, but how does one relate to the other? Diffusion models also exist and work well for images, and they do seem to work for LLMs too.
I think it's the same underlying principle of learning the "joint distribution of things humans have said". Whether done autoregressively via LLMs or via diffusion models, you still end up learning this distribution. The insight seems to be the crazy leap that this is A) a valid thing to talk about and B) that learning this distribution gives you something meaningful.
The leap is in transforming an ill-defined objective of "modeling intelligence" into a concrete proxy objective. Note that the task isn't even "distribution set of valid/true things", since validity/truth is hard to define. It's something akin to "distribution of things a human might say" implemented in the "dumbest" possible way of "modeling the distribution of humanity's collective textual output".
To crack NLP we needed a large dataset of labeled language examples. Prior to next-word prediction, the dominant benchmarks and datasets were things like translation of English to German sentences. These datasets were on the order of millions of labeled examples. Next-word prediction turned the entire Internet into labeled data.
Batteries are not like gas tanks. 80% of original capacity doesn't mean you have 20% less, it means a lot of other things too. These are chemical reactions which happen which lead to lots of other effects, like higher internal resistance.
So does it mean that if I use a 80% capacity battery my actual functional value that I get out of it would be considerably less than what the 80% would infer?
"The degradation rate of lithium-ion battery is not a linear process with respect tonumber of cycles, battery aging tests (Fig. 1) have shown that in cycling tests the degradation rate is significantly higher during the early cycles than during the later cycles, and then increases rapidly when reaching the end of life (EoL)."
Actually, 80% is considered effectively 'end of life':
"Battery end of life is typically defined as the point at which the battery only provides 80% of its rated maximum capacity"
Not necessarily. It isn't the amount of people that is causing your discomfort -- the airline is always going to optimize for a full plane (and environmentally, we should want them to). It is the fact that we have been taught to tolerate people when they are being obnoxious and discourteous. If the airlines just ejected people who were being an asshole and fellow travelers would call out and shame bad behavior, it might lead to a more pleasant experience.
The seats are also too small, at least for Western men (and increasingly for women too).
I am quite tall and find flying an experience to be endured by gritting my teeth, but for taller and heavier people it is almost torture. I recently saw a man with half his leg in the aisle, taking up almost all the walking space. If you are unlucky enough to sit next to a very large man, a fairly common sight especially in the US, the entire flight becomes a series of small and large movements, squirming and twisting.
However, people want to pay less and less, while airlines earn more and more. Competition is limited and I don't see how flight comfort can improve for the average passenger.
For the vast majority of folks who are or would be a nuisance in flight, I'm pretty sure:
* If they hear about stories where folks got punished for being obnoxious, they'd think "I would never be that obnoxious - that is not meant for people like me". In other words, they'be oblivious to their own predilections.
* If they are placed in a situation where their instincts would lead them to being obnoxious, they.. will be obnoxious. Even if they 'know' what the consequence are. There are a few reasons for that:
* It's a crime of passion; they can't help themselves. That's the general problem with trying to use rationality to tamper down crime: Most crimes are fundamentally not rational. You don't decide that it is in your best interest to murder someone (outside of an infinitesemal % of the population that are high functioning total psychopaths). No, you do so in the heat of the moment. At which point "Rational brain telling the id to cut it the fuck out because you might be ejected from the plane" is obviously going to have absolutely no tempering effect whatsoever.
* They honestly think it doesn't apply to them. Usually because 'yes of course obnoxious behaviour should be punished by ejecting the obnoxian from the plane. But I'm not obnoxious, you don't understand! That kid is crying and driving me nuts, I had a bad night's sleep, and I have an important meeting right out of the plane so I need my rest so I have to yell at that mom to shut their kid up, see, my intentions are good!'
Ref: Bit of a stretch, but: Similar (in culture, size, average wage, etc) locations with wildly different takes on how important it is to punish crime in order to serve as a 'warning' / to disincentivise crime by making clear that it will be heavily punished. The best place in my experience to look for this is the US where it appears to be culturally in vogue to act as some sort of wild west sheriff trope. The results? Not one iota of difference in crime rates. Or, if anything, the places that punish it more have _more_ crime, not less. And, of course, a million-and-one psych papers.
If you want to make flight less of a nuisance, the rest of this thread has the right idea I think: Given that it's so ubiquitously available and intentionally designed in that way, it's inevitable that the experience sucks. If you want the experience to be less bad, it inherently comes with a reduction in accessibility.
And on top of that, 'travel stress' is real and not something the airline industry can easily tackle. Try to imagine that travel just stresses you out. That it just does. For those who don't suffer from travel stress this can be hard to do. Maybe you have a light fear of heights; channel that. It's easy to see how the experience just kinda sucks if half the people trying to enjoy the view from some high vantage point are lightly freaking out, and they kinda have to be there for other reasons.
The person you are replying to was alluding to the fact that 'ejecting' someone out of a plane that was flying would be a demonstration the crew's intolerance for obnoxiousness. In essence, if you don't behave you will be murdered. Seeing this happen to one passenger would almost certainly make everyone else on the flight quiet down and sit still.
In my experience, the mother tends to be fairly mortified herself—and, generally being closer to the screamer than anyone else is, would certainly make it stop if she could.
Screaming children test my patience too, but I’m really not sure screaming adults do much to resolve that. It’s always seemed to me that grace is the better part of maturity.
Sometimes you simply cannot control a screaming child easily and the only way is to let them be for a while. If you don't understand it, you are really immature and need to learn some basics about human society.
Let's push it a little farther than a screaming child. Something the parent can control is their child hitting the back of my seat. The only time I've ever said something to a parent on a flight was when that was happening, and after several warning looks over my shoulder that the mother ignored. And what I did wasn't shout. I basically turned around and hissed at them to control their child. That stopped it without drawing any excessive attention.
I’m a member of human society too. Me and 80% of the people on the plane can’t stand the selfishness but have the self-control not to say anything, because it’ll do no good anyway.
But if there were an airline that charged double for rejecting kids under the “shut up” age, I’d pay double for my seat and I bet I’m not alone.
> Me and 80% of the people on the plane can’t stand the selfishness
neither can I. But most of the people also understand that when a kid is crying, it is not out of parents' selfishness but rather helplessness.
> But if there were an airline that charged double for rejecting kids under the “shut up” age, I’d pay double for my seat and I bet I’m not alone.
The fact that no parent wants their child to keep crying is something that eludes you means you have very little social skills and you are amongst a tiny minority. If any airline ever proposes something like that, the backlash will be swift and massive.
> If any airline ever proposes something like that, the backlash will be swift and massive.
This is true. But it's not a condemnation of my position: if anything, it supports my level of frustration with the status quo.
Children are necessary and must be loved. At the same time, they (usually) don't need to be on airplanes if they can't be stopped from wailing for 9 straight hours (not an exaggeration- that's what happened on my Frankfurt flight).
There are medical flights and dying relatives and migrations and so on that are unavoidable. I was the wailing child on such a flight once, the pressure killing my ears. But that flight was entirely unavoidable.
And here's what you don't seem to get: people like me accept all of it if the parent is making any effort to stop it or console/distract the child, which is what my parents spent the flight doing.
Instead, we look at the parent sitting on their phone with earphones in while the kid is wailing next to them and curse society for normalizing this.
In theory, yes, you could enforce better conduct (although this might harm the bottom line). But I also think that when you place people in cramped conditions, they inherently begin to behave more antisocially and become less amicable. For every inch of legroom or width you shave off a seat, I think there's a non-negligible amount of discomfort that leads to more annoyance, which in turn leads to worse behavior. At some point, some portion of the consumers do explode into outright hostility or madness, and the airlines mostly seem to be tuning their services to just above that point.
Money - the very high cost of any air travel prior to deregulation - used to somewhat alleviate both issues. The airlines had incentive to compete on service quality rather than chase the maximum number of seats they could pack on a plane. And anyone paying that much to fly had a reputational incentive to behave in a civilized way.
Flying private for the same amount of inflation-adjusted money as first class cost in the 1960s is a poor analogue, because it inherently leaves out the social dynamic that caused people to, e.g., wear their best clothes and don their best manners to board an airplane. There is no analogue, because first class now is not much better than what coach was back then. In other words, public air travel as it is now is a product that did not exist in the 1960s, geared to a consumer who didn't exist. And the enshittification is inevitable when the goal is maximum occupancy.
If there were an airline with double the legroom in coach for double the price of coach on other airlines, I'd fly it exclusively. No one offers that. It's a barbell with steerage at one end and a very diminished first class experience for 5x the price at the other.
Culture and behavior aren't strictly consequences of economics.
In my experience for example, people on flights outside of the US tend to be far more polite, amicable, and respectful than one experiences on US flights, even though flights are still widely accessible in that region too, to my knowledge. Perhaps part of that is a side effect of reasonable train availability as well and distribution resulting from that (another great public utility we lack in the US because public good is bad or something)
> In my experience for example, people on flights outside of the US tend to be far more polite, amicable,
This doesn't seem to be true at all in my experience. Nasty behavior or punches in planes in India is increasingly common. And it will get worse as more and more people travel by plane again due to "cheap tickets".
Not really. Very crowded airports and tight seating makes whole flying experience worse than before. Nothing to do with obnoxious people.
And cheap ticket price creates same incentive as cheap gas price. If its so cheap why not just travel more. One can argue "no one is forced to fly in plane" but living in society has taught me otherwise.
This too. All else being equal, if you doubled the price per flight and halved the number of passengers you crammed on a plane, you'd have less than half as many people flying and a lot fewer flights, hence a lot less pollution. My proof of this is that if it or equal value to double the price and halve the seats, some airline would be doing it.
I feel one key social dynamic is travel, tourism, exploring the world is relentlessly promoted as unalloyed good. Cities all over are falling over each other as great place to "explore" and "experience" much more than being good place to live, work or raise family.
If I see through this promotion I am the curmudgeon who doesn't love the joys of travel.
Isn't that a broader societal thing? It feels like American culture has gotten more tolerant than it ever has, and we're all to patiently zip it while the person in front of us stands on the left side of the escalator we're trying to walk up, instead of the right like everyone else. Or someone is listening to Instagram feeds at full volume on the train as they flip through one stupidity after the other.
Or is it we're scared of getting shot or punched in the face, given how much we've vilified law and order as inherently unjust and skewed, and therefore to be reimagined. And thus we grit our teeth in 'tolerance' which is a virtue of the young.
reply