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I have a very bad feeling about Snapchat.

My background is in Finance, I have traded and followed the markets closely for nearly a decade and I've studied or read about basically all major bubbles that happened around the world for the past millennium.

Price cycles are an inherent part of capitalistic markets, periods of both over and undervaluation will always happen, that's basically a part of the games rule.

In the late 90s happened the web bubble. When is the mobile one going to take place?

Now back to Snapchat. They are looking more and more like what I imagine the poster boy of the mobile bubble would look like. Also, the macro conditions (tech stocks making new highs after new highs, investors throwing easy money at basically anything related tech etc.) are currently very bullish, which means perfect conditions to the birth of a new a price bubble.

That being said, I wish the Snapchat crew the best wisdom and luck of the world in navigating both the good and the bad times, whatever comes next.




How big is your NASDAQ index short?


Actually I'm just about to start fundraising - similar to short selling only I don't lose money if the market keeps going up ;)

Trying to catch a bubble is very risky business. The biggest upward moves happen just before it bursts so you can easily get totally wiped out if you don't get the timing right with your shorts even if you are right. That's not something I'm willing to figure out right now.

Also, I'm long term bullish on tech stocks. Doesn't mean I think there're no sucker plays going on right now though.




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