> In fact when you look at any typical modern fertility correlation explanation, they all really just fall apart under the slightest of scrutiny. Education/income stuff? Look at Thailand - extremely low education, extremely low income, extremely low fertility - even lower than Japan! So what is the real driving factor? It seems clear that if people believe 'true happiness' is just one 'thing' away, then they are motivated to continue chasing those things. Children don't really have a place in this sort of world - as they simply imperil your ability to pursue that sort of perceived happiness.
Don’t they correlate with access women’s rights and access to contraception?
I see a very strong correlation with the ability for a woman to live on her own and/or the ability for a woman to access healthcare that prevents her from having to give birth with fertility rate declines.
There is clearly a mismatch between the near term costs of pregnancy/childbirth/infant rearing and the long term benefits of having kids. Humans are unique in that they are the only species (I think) that can analyze and opt out of the mechanism by which evolution propagates the species.
I also don’t know how representative Russia is because broad availability and use of very effective and “easy” birth control (IUD/pills) took place in more recent decades. And according to Wikipedia, Russia did roll back women’s rights to only allowing abortion at 12 weeks (passed 2011):
> During the 2000s, Russia's steadily falling population (due to both negative birthrates and low life expectancy) became a major source of concern, even forcing the military to curtail conscription due to shortages of young males. On 21 October 2011, the Russian Parliament passed a law restricting abortion to the first 12 weeks of pregnancy, with an exception up to 22 weeks if the pregnancy was the result of rape, and for medical necessity it can be performed at any point during pregnancy.
A lot of things you're referencing are quite ambiguous so it's difficult for me to understand exactly what you mean. For instance contraceptives have been widely available in many countries with healthy birth rates for an extremely long period of time. South America is full of such examples, as well as women who have long since played a major role in the labor pool.
As for what I was talking about, Russia is not the USSR. Following the collapse of the USSR, Russia (alongside all former Soviet nations) entered into a catastrophic era. Birth rates, income, safety, and basically every other aspect of life plummeted to dangerously low levels during the 90s, which throws off absolutely all data because of something completely unrelated to anything we're discussing.
>For instance contraceptives have been widely available in many countries with healthy birth rates for an extremely long period of time. South America is full of such examples, as well as women who have long since played a major role in the labor pool.
It takes time for the knowledge and culture about birth control to spread. South America specifically had a lot of Catholic influence which probably prevented many women from choosing or obtaining birth control.
Also, modern birth control like IUDs are just a whole different beast. Whereas there were “accidental” pregnancies in previous generations, there are almost none these days unless you are aiming to become pregnant at some point.
Fair enough about Russia, but the USSR was a long time ago now, and I don’t see any modern society with replacement level birth rates outside of small religious groups or immigrants that still have the momentum of raising traditional families, which evidence says dissipates after the first generation.
I absolutely agree with you on almost everything here. Much of it is what led me to my hypothesis for the cause. Why would religion seem to have such a strong relationship with healthier birth rates? The obvious responses don't really work out. The Bible is surprisingly ambiguous on how many children people should have, or even if everybody should endeavor to do so. And in any case, people scarcely follow the teachings of the Bible when even moderately inconvenient.
Looking to past, in ancient times philosophy meant something different than today. Essentially everybody was expected, as a part of becoming an adult, to develop their own philosophy of life. Ancient religions offered very little in the way of life philosophy. Pre-Abrahamic religions, such as in Greek or Norse culture, had Gods which took on all human characteristics - maliciousness, greed, sadism, and more. The stories offered were metaphorical in nature, rather than something to guide your life by. So this is the era where you get people inventing everything from the Cult of Pythagoras to Zenoism (stoicism).
But in modern times we, in general, no longer have religion and we no longer have philosophy. So what have people turned to guide them in life? And the answer seems largely to be Product. Eternal happiness is always just one new Product away. And not only have many people turned to Product, but there has been an increasing trend of people denying their own mortality - whether through some sort of singularity event, the 'marvels of medicine' somehow growing exponentially to enable people to live indefinitely, or even some fringe quantum immortality views.
What alternative philosophies are emerging seem to also be death cults in any case - viewing humans as little more than machines, rejecting ones own consciousness, and so on. In all of these philosophies and world views there seems to be very little reason for children. And it just so happens that when one starts to look at things from this perspective, it somehow explains everything literally perfectly. I've yet to find a single compelling exception, while every other explanation for fertility just completely falls to pieces under the slightest of scrutiny.
Don’t they correlate with access women’s rights and access to contraception?
I see a very strong correlation with the ability for a woman to live on her own and/or the ability for a woman to access healthcare that prevents her from having to give birth with fertility rate declines.
There is clearly a mismatch between the near term costs of pregnancy/childbirth/infant rearing and the long term benefits of having kids. Humans are unique in that they are the only species (I think) that can analyze and opt out of the mechanism by which evolution propagates the species.
I also don’t know how representative Russia is because broad availability and use of very effective and “easy” birth control (IUD/pills) took place in more recent decades. And according to Wikipedia, Russia did roll back women’s rights to only allowing abortion at 12 weeks (passed 2011):
> During the 2000s, Russia's steadily falling population (due to both negative birthrates and low life expectancy) became a major source of concern, even forcing the military to curtail conscription due to shortages of young males. On 21 October 2011, the Russian Parliament passed a law restricting abortion to the first 12 weeks of pregnancy, with an exception up to 22 weeks if the pregnancy was the result of rape, and for medical necessity it can be performed at any point during pregnancy.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abortion_in_Russia