> Our forecast is up!!! It gives Joe Biden a 71% chance of winning and Donald Trump a 29% chance
I think the confusing thing here is that at first glance it looks like "Joe Biden will get 71% of the votes" which is a landslide victory. If it said "there is as much chance of Joe Biden winning as rolling a 1-7 on a 10 sided dice", which means almost exactly the same thing, no one would get surprised if Trump won, because we are all familiar with dice rolls with probabilities in the 0.1-0.9 range.
I think the confusing thing here is that at first glance it looks like "Joe Biden will get 71% of the votes" which is a landslide victory. If it said "there is as much chance of Joe Biden winning as rolling a 1-7 on a 10 sided dice", which means almost exactly the same thing, no one would get surprised if Trump won, because we are all familiar with dice rolls with probabilities in the 0.1-0.9 range.